The question as regards the date on which the supervisory Troika will return to Athens remains open for now, as despite yesterday's four-hour videoconference between the leadership of the Ministry of Finance and the representatives of the creditors, the two parties have not come to an agreement, the major problem being the fiscal deficit for 2015.
According to a senior official from the Ministry of Finance, "they continue to support the assumption of an alleged budget deficit" (the Troika estimates it at 2.6-3.6 billion euro), insisting that "we are right, as we were in previous years."
The government continues to claim that there will be no budget deficit in 2015 and, based on this position, today it submitted for discussion in parliament the new budget for next year.
Asked whether the date on which the supervisory Troika will return to Athens has been specified, the specialist replies, "we have no date yet but the talks are underway."
The same high-ranking official in the Ministry of Finance states that the whole range of issues was discussed during the videoconference, adding, "we have agreed on many issues", and specifying that the Eurogroup meeting on 8 December remains crucial for the government.
The same source notes that the talks have not discussed a possible extension of the existing memorandum. "We must finish the current inspection to continue. The most important thing for us is to finish the assessment," he adds.
The videoconference that started with an over 3-hour-delay (at 11:30 pm last night, Thursday, and ended at 3:00 pm the next day) involved Minister of Finance Gikas Hardouvelis, his deputies Christos Staikouras and Giorgos Mavraganis and advisers to the Prime Minister Stavros Papastavrou and Chrisantos Lazaridis.
The main points of the discussion were the changes in the insurance system and the liberalization of mass layoffs, which the Greek side has rejected, the trade union law and the temporary closure of companies, in terms of which there is a convergence of positions, and the changes in VAT, which the government says are not necessary.
Meanwhile, the government today tabled for discussion in parliament the draft budget for 2015, which is based on the expected primary surplus of 3%, although no agreement has been reached with the supervisory Troika.
Ultimatum from Brussels
Before the videoconference Brussels had sent a new ultimatum to the Greek government.
Sources from the euro zone revealed that the current memorandum could be extended for another year, adding that this would be required for technical reasons, because of the various issues related to the capital requirements of certain Greek banks.
The same sources emphasized that the decision on a possible extension of the current programme should be taken before it expired, namely before 31 December.
"The talks continue"
According to a reliable source from Washington, the negotiations will continue today in the same way, by a videoconference, and the goal is to agree on the return of the Troika.
The most important issue, as mentioned, is the fiscal deficit. The creditors believe that the benefits of uniformed officers, magistrates and other groups form a deficit, along with the 100 contributions of the single tax on real estate. The Greek government, of course, does not agree, but if the parties do not come to an agreement, the representatives of the creditors will not return to Athens.
Furthermore, the representatives of the supervisory Troika state that if the sixth consecutive inspection is not completed no other issue can progress.
The same source emphasized the following points before the start of videoconference, which were confirmed after it:
Firstly, if the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that its representatives would return to Athens, this would mean that they would go on to complete the sixth inspection. An IMF source however could not state whether this would happen and, if so, when.
Secondly, the IMF representatives will not return to Athens, if there is the slightest chance of failure. There is an order to avoid a visit that may possibly result in failure. Following yesterday's videoconference, the IMF sees a light at the end of the tunnel.
Thirdly, based on the currently available data, unless an agreement on 75% of the issues is reached over the next few days, it will be difficult to complete the sixth inspection by 8 December.
Fourthly, if the sixth inspection is not completed by the end of the year, a formula to retain the representatives of European creditors in the programme for another three months will have to be found, as the credit agreement with them is due to expire at the end of 2014.
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