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Several days before the parliamentary elections in Greece, both public polls and those that are available to the staffs of different parties for their own use, suggest that the winner is already known and that there are no chances of a change at the last moment.

The probability of the radical left SYRIZA party winning the elections has already reached an impressive 80%.

For poll analysts, the probability of winning is the surest indicator of stabilisation of the difference in the results between the first party and the other participants in the elections, and in this case, it indicates a serious difference in favour of SYRIZA.

The key issue for SYRIZA is the opportunity to form an independent government. However, this directly depends on the percentage of the votes obtained by the parties that fail to surpass the 3% threshold to enter parliament.

The larger the percentage obtained by the political formations that will remain outside parliament, the greater the likelihood of SYRIZA forming an independent government.

Therefore, the fate of a separate SYRIZA government depends on the election result of Independent Greeks led by Panos Kamenos and on whether the party will be able to enter parliament.

If the elections confirm the assumptions of recent polls, namely that Independent Greeks are close to the 3% threshold and there is a probability of the party entering parliament, this will take away the chance of SYRIZA forming a separate office. At the same time, however, the radical left will secure itself a potential government ally.

It is believed that the fate of Independent Greeks, and therefore of SYRIZA, will be decided by former voters of New Democracy who have joined Independent Greeks and its position against the memorandum, but it is not certain whether the shift will end by voting for Panos Kamenos in order for him to support in turn a "left government" led by Alexis Tsipras.

Therefore, Independent Greeks will be one of the questions on the night of the elections.

As for New Democracy, the party seems to have walked into the trap of hard-right rhetoric that is taking it away from the more moderate voters. Thus, it is not only failing to stop the outflow of voters directly to SYRIZA but is also repealing the moderate voters, including those of PASOK, who are probably planning to vote for Samaras, but may not do so.

True derby for the third place  
 
The grand derby in the election race will be for the third place. This is because on the one hand it seems that Potami will win this position but on the other sociologists fear that Golden Dawn might have prepared another "unpleasant" surprise. Their fears are based on the assessment that a large number of voters who said they would vote for New Democracy or refused to state whom they would support, will turn to the extreme nationalist party.

The latest polls indicate that the Movement of Democratic Socialists of George Papandreou seems to be losing its dynamism and it will not be able to surpass the 3% threshold. However, the probability of a powerful flow that will allow Papandreou to re-enter parliament appearing at the last minute is not excluded either.