The Best of GRReporter
flag_bg flag_gr flag_gb

The sudden falling in love of markets and bankers in Greece

25 December 2012 / 16:12:08  GRReporter
3839 reads

My messmate was slowly turning the pages of his book and talking about the small "miracles" that have been happening recently. This knowledgeable and experienced politician has experienced the majority of big changes in the Greek economy and political life of the country.

Involuntarily, his thoughts flew several decades back in time, when Greece, in the midst of civil war, was trying to recover from the effects of World War II. He remembered a very talented man, American lawyer Paul Porter, a confidante of American President Harry Truman, and his article about the situation in Greece, published in the autumn of 1947 in the journal "Collier's" and entitled "A miracle wanted for Greece."

Now, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is also looking for a miracle, but reality is harsh. Faith alone without action is not enough and the tripartite government needs to do a lot in order to overcome the obstacles so that its requests are heard. In recent days, the government coalition has started being inexplicably encouraged by the merry spirit of Christmas.

Suddenly, as if miraculously, interest rates on loans to Greece were reduced, since the European Central Bank (ECB) started to accept Greek bonds as collateral to provide liquidity to banks, the stock exchange recorded a boom, multinational companies decided to invest in this way showing trust in the country, Standard & Poor's increased the rating of the Greek economy, and other rating agencies are also preparing similar steps.

Could these events change the direction of things and the slow state apparatus start gaining momentum? In recent days, there have been some positive signs for the Greek economy, which has been underestimated recently. The country needed to receive the next tranche a few days ago in order to see some light in the tunnel.

Of course, despite the positive messages, international financial systems, banks, international surveillance companies, and all those who deal with the assessment of countries and companies, insist that Greece be seen as a high risk area, which does not allow taking any risk.

A few months ago, Greece was completely excluded from the map and was considered almost a dead zone. This situation seems to be changing, although more work is needed instead of reassurance, as Finance Minister Yiannis Stournaras said.

The Prime Minister's residence noted that strict adherence to the programme is necessary and predicted a change in the climate in the fourth quarter of 2013, as well as weak growth in 2014.

However, in its weekly bulletin, Alpha Bank stated that the recent increase in Greece's credit rating by Standard & Poor's to Β- was the clearest sign that the recovery of the Greek economy has begun and the bank foresaw an increase of the country’s rating to ΑΑΑ by 2020.

The Government admitted that 2013 will be a very difficult year, but the allocation of the 34 billion euro tranche brought smiles.

Optimism is reigning. Deputy Minister of Finance Christos Staikouras believes that, in 2012, the primary deficit will be lower than expected levels.

It has already reached 1.5 billion euro (0.8% of GDP) for the period from January to November, as it fell from 6 billion euro in the same period of 2011 (2.9% of GDP), and the deficit amounted to 12.9 billion euro (6.6% of GDP) down from 21.5 billion euro in the same period of 2011 (10.3% of GDP).

At the same time, in terms of the twin deficits in the period January-October, the current account deficit was reduced by 12.1 billion euro, or 74.4%, compared to the same period of 2011, reaching 4.1 billion euro.

This development of events primarily reflects the significant reduction of the trade deficit by 5.8 billion euro, since imports have declined and exports are increasing. At the same time, export revenues have increased by 2.7%, while payments for respective imports fell at a much faster pace (14.4%).

ECB's decision to accept Greek government bonds as collateral, allowing banks to obtain liquidity from the ECB at an interest rate of less than 2 percentage points, was also encouraging.

But can this miracle last until it fully reverses the negative swing of events so that the rise of the Greek economy could start? Doubt is still prevailing, as the main questions which arise include: Is there a plan for the country? What is its productive model? Does the government work effectively?

Answers given by those familiar with the situation are clear: The plan has its flaws and there is no clear view about where the country should be oriented. Hasty steps are taken, often in an unknown direction. To date, the allocation of the burden of the crisis is not fair, as the new tax bill made clear. Furthermore, over-activity of the Prime Minister and several other ministers is a fact, as well as the poor functioning of the government, since most ministers follow personal or party politics.

But in order for the Greeks to be able to call “Miracle! Miracle", i.e. for a further increase of the country’s rating and a gradual access to international markets to be achieved, the government should remain united and continue its work smoothly so that the implementation of the programme, such as privatisation, attracting investments and more, could mark some progress.

Overseas "bridges"

In an attempt to transfer overseas "bridges", the Greek Prime Minister is preparing a visit to the USA. He has never made such a visit so far in the three years since he has been leader of New Democracy.

According to sources of To Vima, the necessary procedures have started so that, in the spring, Antonis Samaras could visit Washington in order to meet with American President Barack Obama.

Tags: Greek economy miracles Christmas
SUPPORT US!
GRReporter’s content is brought to you for free 7 days a week by a team of highly professional journalists, translators, photographers, operators, software developers, designers. If you like and follow our work, consider whether you could support us financially with an amount at your choice.
Subscription
You can support us only once as well.
blog comments powered by Disqus