A narrow lead for New Democracy over SYRIZA and fall for all other political parties, has been shown by recent polls, which cannot be published officially.
According to a report published in “Weekend” newspaper, data coming in journalistic editing departments show that the gap that separates New Democracy and SYRIZA is less than 2 percent. Meanwhile, no major differences appear in absolute values compared to the results reported by polls before the publication ban.
According to senior party members the voting percentages of New Democracy are up from 26 percent to 29.5 percent and of SYRIZA - from 23 percent to 26 percent.
During last week the attitudes of the electorate seemed to favour New Democracy. "From the time specific issues were raised, people were able to make a clear choice", indicate those who know the criteria by which respondents make their choices.
Decline for the smaller parties
Aside from New Democracy and SYRIZA the percentage rates for other parties are as follows:
The socialist party PASOK is between 9 percent and 12 percent, Panos Kamenos’ "Independent Greeks" is between 6 percent and 7 percent, the Democratic Left is between 4 percent and 5.5 percent, the neo-Nazi "Golden Dawn" is between 4.1 percent and 6 percent, the Communist Party KKE is between 3 percent and 4 percent, the Green Environmentalists are close to 1.5 percent and the formation of Stefanos Manos and Thanos Dzimeros hardly crosses the 1 percent line.
As it becomes clear from polls analysis, the behaviour of voters in large urban centres is expected to play a key role in shaping the final election result.
Critical situation in Attica
At present New Democracy seems to be having a big problem in Athens and in general in Attica, because people there have negative attitudes when it comes to the memorandum.
This situation largely favours smaller political formations such as Panos Kamenos’ "Independent Greeks", the Democratic Left, and also "Golden Dawn".
As for PASOK, it occupies 6th place in the largest electoral district in the country - Attica.
Given that ten days before the election the rate of undecided voters is so high, it is normal for party headquarters to focus their efforts on large electoral districts, which in practice will shape the final election result.
A serious decline for KKE
According to secret polls, the Communist Party KKE is facing serious problems because it seems to have been defeated by the upward course of SYRIZA.
Until Thursday (when the incident with Kasidiaris happened on ANT1), KKE had about 3 percent.
The whole ordeal with Kasidiaris and Kaneli seem to have affected both KKE and "Golden Dawn" favourably as is evidenced by the results in polls.
Supremacy of New Democracy in the provinces
The biggest mobilization of New Democracy was recorded in the provinces where the Conservative Party seems to have gained back the percentages it won in the 2009 elections.
It seems that a key role was played by Antonis Samaras’ attempt to mobilize the right-centrist forces and weaken the political parties close to New Democracy.
Almost all sociological surveys indicated that 80 percent of Dora Bakoyannis’ "Democratic Alliance" voters will vote for New Democracy and a large percentage of voters who on May 6 supported "Independent Greeks", LAOS and Manos-Dzimeris will most likely return to the big party.
Fotis Kouvelis is hanging on and PASOK is falling
Most recent secret polls report stabilization for the "Democratic Left", a fact that has surprised even sociologists themselves.
Fotis Kouvelis’ party keeps a steady rate above 5 percent, with a tendency to reach even 7 percent.
Meanwhile, PASOK seems to be losing its supporters because in three of the five polls it received less than 10 percent of the vote. It should be noted that besides SYRIZA, a large percentage of (former) PASOK voters, supporters of the memorandum, seem inclined to choose New Democracy.
The biggest problem for the party of Evangelos Venizelos is in large urban centres and areas where traditionally PASOK had record rates, such as Achaia, Crete and Thessaly.
Lead for the "blue" also according to "Western Macedonia" University in Kozani
Apart from the sociological research agencies the "Statistics" Department of the University of "Western Macedonia" in the city of Kozani conducted its own research as well.
According to sources, this poll shows a clear lead for New Democracy over SYRIZA.
The difference between the two parties is greater than that which was reported by polls before the ban on their publication.