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The protests must continue, otherwise Oresharski will not leave

25 July 2013 / 23:07:23  GRReporter
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This is unfounded. All macroeconomic indicators are good, including the one of the GDP growth. They are even better in comparison with the same period last year. The relative excess in the budget is the cost of salaries of the police and other authorities that maintain public order.

The protests have been continuing for more than three months already. The first was the February unrest that lasted for 40 days approximately, like the current protests. As you understand, extra pay-outs are inevitable in this case. The only over-expenditure in the budget this year will be connected with this item; there are no other cost overruns in the financial programme. There is no reason to overspend the budget.

The problems in the economy are not caused by the protests. We need to consider the reason for the protests to find out what hinders the development of the economy.

The cause for the protests is the fact that the so-called majority in parliament is trying to use the power structures of the state, in particular the State Agency for National Security (SANS), in order for it to impose economic interests on the politics and economy of the country. This appointment was related to the influence of a particular bank that serves Russian interests in Bulgaria. Not only one or two but maybe more than ten political appointments of this type have been made over the past year.

There have been a series of such appointments which show the clear connection of the government with the oligarchy, which is not a precise definition since this is a group of people who always win and are always friends with the government in power (regardless of its colour). We call this friendly capitalism or Crony capitalism.

So far, the decline in foreign investments is the most embarrassing development in economic terms. Their value in the first quarter of 2013 was three times lower than their level in the same period last year.

What is the cause for the withdrawal of foreign direct investment from Bulgaria in your opinion?

I think this is a result of the general government inefficiency which has been recently observed. Bulgaria remains an extremely favourable investment destination both for European and for other foreign partners. The record attracting of foreign direct investments was in 2008 when they accounted for 32% of GDP.

In March, Emil Kabainov from the Union of Democratic Forces supported the cancellation of the currency board in Bulgaria. What is your opinion about this?

Firstly, this man has no idea of ​​economy and secondly, he no longer has any representative functions in his party. Thirdly, there is no important political force to begin to openly “dismantle” the currency board. What can happen is the hidden “dismantling”, namely when the budget deficit increases and there is no way to raise the taxes to pay the debts. In this case, we can talk about cancellation of the currency board, as happened in Argentina.

Currently the system in Bulgaria is very stable. The reserve of the currency board amounts to almost one hundred percent of the reserve of the central bank. In other words, there is no reason for concern except for the things that are happening in the political sphere.

Under what circumstances do you think that it would be appropriate for Bulgaria to join the euro zone and adopt the euro as its official currency?

It is when the euro zone begins to meet the same criteria of economic stability that it itself has set and when they are being observed in Bulgaria. Currently only three countries meet all the requirements of the European Union and they are all outside the euro zone. They are Denmark, Sweden and Bulgaria.

To what extent do you think that the debt crisis in the euro zone and especially in Greece has affected Bulgaria?

I do not think that this crisis is a problem of the currency. It is rather due to the behaviour of the European Central Bank which, since 2009, has been irrational. The international financial crisis in 2008-2009 led to a decline in foreign investment. Foreign direct investments in 2010 were eight times lower than in 2008. This is the impact of the crisis. As to the Greek crisis, I believe that it has no significant impact on Bulgaria for one simple reason - it is not Greece (figuratively) that owes money to Bulgaria but vice versa. For example, Greek banks are interested in the good development of Bulgaria because then the local branches will pay off their debts to the Greek parent companies.

Bulgaria is the poorest country among the members of the European Union ...

This is not true. According to the latest data of the European Statistical Office Eurostat Romanians are the poorest.

The most important thing is that Bulgarians are poor. The first failure in the modern history of Bulgaria was in 1960, followed by the bankruptcies in 1976 and 1990. This last failure we are talking about happened on the basis of the previous two. Then we had the same people who had brought the country to the previous failures and who continued to try to govern the country until the next collapse in 1997. What should the behaviour of rational citizens and voters be in this case?

The problems in the healthcare sector and in the social policy are very serious. What should be done in order for the standard of living in the country to improve sustainably and for the pensions to increase?

Tags: EconomyPoliticsBulgariaProtestsCrisisOresharskiResignation
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