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Greece can manage without money from IMF and EU

20 September 2014 / 17:09:27  GRReporter
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Yesterday in London the Minister of Finance, Gikas Hardouvelis, expressed his belief that Greece could handle its new duties without new financial assistance from the IMF and the EU, leaving open the possibility of withdrawing from the fund at the end of the year. At the same time, the financial headquarters of the country is carefully planning the steps related to the issuance of a new seven-year bond which will provide for coverage of financial deficits of the country and will open the way to a successful exit from the programme.

In an interview for Bloomberg, when asked whether Greece might sooner come out from under the umbrella of the triad, Hardouvelis replied that everything was possible. He also explained that the European programme ended at the end of the year. The IMF programme ends in 2016, i.e. there is an intervening period between the two programmes. Creditors, on their hand, feel uncomfortable with regard to 2015, as they do not know what will happen.

Hardouvelis noted that "the IMF did not want to lend loans on their own, and Europeans were annoyed that they did not participate. Therefore, a solution to this had to be found. However, when asked by a journalist about a possible solution, Hardouvelis only answers that it is being discussed.

A little later, on a roadshow of the Athens Stock Exchange in London, Hardouvelis said that Greece did not need a third loan to cover the financial deficit in the coming years, and the remainder of the loan to the IMF (about 22-23 billion euro).

Hardouvelis also revealed the proposal of the Fund to withdraw from the Greek programme if the Eurozone ceases to provide loans to Greece. That is, from January 1, when the programme of the Eurozone ends, and afterwards, provided that there is no new programme.

However, nothing similar is on the horizon. Nobody wants a new programme. In Europe there are countries that do not want to give loans to Greece again, and the Greek government has confirmed that the memorandum ends this year. Hardouvelis said yesterday that Greece would not need a third loan.

Persons from the market say to Kathimerini newspaper that the Ministry is testing investors’ interest in 7-year Greek bonds with an interest rate of 4.5-5%. These people also say that an interest rate of 5% will get a positive response from investors at this stage and it may well be that the issuance of bonds is at the door. The Finance Ministry believes that over time the situation will improve and yesterday's statement by Mr. Hardouvelis at the Roadshow of the Athens Stock Exchange in London is indicative that in mid-2015 Greece will be assessed with BBB assessment. This means that Greek bonds will leave the "garbage" category and will again become "an investment rating".

However, in order to ensure coverage of the financial deficit for 2015 and in order for a new financial aid for Greece not to be necessary capital from new issues alone is not enough. The scenario of the Finance Ministry envisages the following:

• The use of short-term loans on the part of state institutions. These credits may exceed 6 billion

• The release of 7.2 billion euro by the end of the year from the Eurozone, the Eurosystem and the IMF. These tranches depend on the successful completion of the audit, which the three will begin on September 30.

• Implementation of new bond issues in 2015.

As for Greek debt, Hardouvelis told Bloomberg that the cuts of the official credits was "not a matter of choice". According to him, the deadline for payment might be extended or part of the interest might turn from moving into permanent.

Six "fronts" with the triad

In order for the audit of the triad to be successfully completed, agreement has to be reached on several issues. According to information, the triad has set the following questions as basic priorities:

1. changes in labour relations. The trade union law and the right to lockout are at the epicentre;

2. changes in the social security system. According to the triad, the system is not viable;

3. a new payroll table for salaries;

4. completion of the budget for 2015. The Ministry of Finance will include tax relief, and the deficit for 2015 must be set;

5. reform of the VAT regime. The triad demands the creation of a common ratio, but that would mean an increase of VAT for the main categories of products;

6. cuts in the public sector. The government has to demonstrate that it will achieve this year's goal, and the triad said it wanted a similar goal for 2015 as well - something the government would reject.

Tags: Gikas Harduvelis Minister of Finance International Monetary Fund Eurozone EU loans
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