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A derby between YES and NO on tomorrow's referendum

04 July 2015 / 16:07:33  GRReporter
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Four new polls on Sunday's referendum show that there is still no clear winner in the derby between YES and NO.

MRB: The YES camp are leading

The vote in support of the European proposals enjoys a small lead: 43.3% for the YES vote and 42.9% for the NO vote. 13.8% of respondents are still undecided. The MRB survey was carried out among 1,325 people on 2 and 3 July.

If these percentages are projected on  tomorrow's results, yes gets 50.2%  of the valid votes, and NO - 49.8%. And as the MRB study carries a statistical error of ± 2,7%, the result of the referendum seems rather fuzzy.

It is important to point out, however, that 43.8% of respondents believe that yes will carry the referendum, while 40.3% think NO will be the winner.

GPO: a slim margin between YES and NO

YES and NO are very slightly apart, according to the GPO study commissioned by Mega TV and carried out from 1-3 July among 2,453 people from across the country.

Those who are sure they will vote YES or lean toward YES account for 44.1%, while those who prefer NO are 43.7%. Three quarters of Greeks, or 75.2%, are for the country's staying in the Eurozone while 23.5% are against it.

In terms of how firm their choice is, the respondents answered as follows:

Firmly YES: 41%

Preferably YES: 3.1%

Preferably NO: 1.9%

Firmly NO: 41.8%

White ballot: 2.5%

I don't know /I'd rather not answer: 9.7%

Supporters of different parties in the elections in January will vote YES in the following proportion:

SYRIZA: 20.3%

New Democracy: 80.6%

Golden Dawn: 23.8%

Potami: 76.1%

Communist Party: 15.2%

Independent Greeks: 18.3%

PASOK: 77.1%

will vote NO:

SYRIZA: 67.7%

New Democracy: 12.9%

Golden Dawn: 62.8%

Potami: 14.3%

Communist Party: 36.7%

Independent Greeks: 67.2%

PASOK: 13.9%

Age distribution of YES votes:

18-29: 29%

30-44: 37.2%

45-59: 39.9%

60+: 56.6%

Age distribution of NO votes:

18-29: 59.3%

30-44: 47.5%

45-59 : 45.9%

60+: 33.3%

The gap between those who see 'yes or no to the euro' as the referendum's real question, and those who do not, is rather small.

Those who believe that the real question is 'yes or no to the euro' are 44.4% while those who believe otherwise are 49.7%. 5.9% did not know or were reluctant to answer.

Those who believe that the real question is 'yes or no to the euro' are from:

SYRIZA: 29.1%

New Democracy: 67.1%

Golden Dawn: 36.6%

Potami: 68.7%

Communist Party: 17.9%

Independent Greeks: 28.3%

PASOK: 69.2%

Those who do not believe that the real question is 'yes or no to the euro' are from:

SYRIZA: 67.0%

New Democracy: 23.6%

Golden Dawn: 59.2%

Potami: 27.2%

Communist Party: 77.3%

Independent Greeks: 66.8%

PASOK: 24%

Those who support Greece's staying in the Eurozone are from:

SYRIZA: 67%

New Democracy: 92.9%

Golden Dawn: 53.5%

Potami: 91.9%

Communist Party: 46.5%

Independent Greeks: 56.8%

PASOK: 95.7%

ALCO: A 0.6% margin  in favour of  YES

Commissioned by www.protothema.gr, an ALCO survey shows only a 0.6% margin in favour of the yes vote. The poll was carried out 1-3 July.

41.7% of respondents answered they would vote yes, while 41.1% will vote NO. 10.7% are still undecided, 4.1% will not vote, while 2.4% will abstain (white ballot). 48% of respondents believe that the decision to hold a referendum is a mistake.  it is correct for 42%, while 10% do not know or would rather not answer.

44% of respondents believe that the real question of the referendum is a 'yes or no to the proposals of the institutions'. For 42% the question  actually is 'yes or no to the euro', and 14% do not know or prefer not to answer.

51% of respondents believe that the referendum's outcome will not change the position of the creditors, 31% think it will, while 18% said 'I don't know/I'd rather not answer'.

60% believe that if the result of the referendum is NO, there is a risk of leaving the eurozone. According to 31% there is no risk, and 9% were in the 'don't know/won't tell' camp.

76% of respondents supported the euro, 14% believe  the country should have a currency of its own, while 10% said 'I don't know/I'd rather not answer'.

Public Issue: NO leads by 0.5%

Public Issue's poll shows borderline results. It was carried out between 30 June and  2 July for Avgi's  Sunday issue.

42.5% of respondents will vote YES, 43% – NO, 9% were undecided, 3.5% said they would not vote, 1% will drop a white ballot, and 1% said 'I don't know/I'd rather not answer'.

Asked "Regardless of how you vote, which answer do you think will win?" 39% believe  NO will win, 50% believe yes will win, and 11% have no opinion. According to the survey, 54% of respondents disagree with the decision to hold a referendum, 42% support it, 1% have no opinion and 2% neither agree nor oppose it.

44% of men in the poll will vote yes, another 44% will vote NO. Among women, 41% will vote YES, and 42% will say NO.

71% of voters aged 18-24 support the NO and 20% of them will vote yes.

59% of the 25-34 age say NO, and 26% say YES.

34% of voters aged 35-44 years will vote NO, and 53% - YES. In the age group 45-54, the YES-sayers are 48%  against  36% NOs. In the 55-64 age group the nay-sayers are 44% and the yes-sayers are 47%. Only 26% of those aged 65 and beyond will vote NO and a hefty 56% will say YES.

Tags: polls referendum YES NO
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