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BBC: Greece and Grexit, how close?

19 April 2015 / 17:04:20  GRReporter
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"How close is Greece to an eventual Grexit?" asks the British television channel BBC in a publication on its website and analyses the country’s situation in six questions and answers, with a view to the upcoming Eurogroup meeting on 24 April, in Riga, Latvia.

Is Greece close to bankruptcy?

We have been through most of this already, but now there is a feeling that without an agreement on Greek reforms the leftist SYRIZA will remain without cash in hand. Outstanding interest on the country's debt is swelling. On April 20, the country must pay €80 million to the European Central Bank, and €200 million to the International Monetary Fund on 1 May.

But what worries Europe most of all are the €760 million to be paid to the IMF on 12 may. Greece is up against a difficult choice: to pay creditors or to pay salaries and pensions in the public sector. Rumours have already made the rounds that Athens has decided to pay off creditors.

Can Greece avoid sinking?

The Greek government is struggling, but it denies having used all its reserve funds, despite having recently paid a €448 million instalment to the IMF. For a left-wing party like SYRIZA, which came to power on the wave of popular resentment towards austerity, withholding pensions is a poisonous pill to swallow, however unavoidable it might seem.

Since 2010, Greece has been rescued twice by the European Union and the IMF. Talks on 24 April are aimed at easing the way of € 7.2 billion into the country, but even if Greece managed to lay its hands on the whole amount, it might still come to a point where it needs rescuing a third time with tens of billions. But unless the reform package satisfies the creditors, the country will not get its 7 billion either.

What will happen if the country goes bankrupt?

Greek banks are already on the edge. They currently rely on those 74 billion from ECB’s emergency liquidity Mechanism (ELA). If the government fails to pay its debts, ECB funding might dry up, and it holds both the banks and the government afloat. A bankruptcy might trigger a chain reaction. Tens of billions have already been bled from the banks. To prevent deposits from completely melting, withdrawals might as well be banned by law.

Well a bankruptcy entail Grexit?

Greece’s possible insolvency, which is the worst possible scenario, could spin the country out of the eurozone. Greece will return to the drachma, which it will inevitably devaluate, there will be inflation and a bank crisis. Greece will become the pariah of international markets for years ahead, as did Argentina in 2002. Greece wishes to stay in the eurozone, but a possible bankruptcy will probably force it out.

Is Grexit inevitable?

An agreement on 24 April, which greenlights funding to Greece, is entirely possible. But even a failure to reach such an agreement does not automatically mean bankruptcy or exit from the eurozone. Nor does it mean that Greece won't pay its creditors. For a number of economists, a ‘controlled bankruptcy’ is the best way out. It implies less rigid conditions in paying off creditors.

It might also mean that Greece will remain in the euro area with strict capital controls designed to prevent cash leaking away from the country. One possibility explored in Germany is that the ECB continue to fund Greek banks, while considering them bankrupt, in return for stringent guarantees to carry out structural reforms.

Is there a risk of a domino effect?

The EU is trying to limit the risk of the banking crisis spreading from one member-state to another, but partners like Germany are no longer scared of this prospect. Stll, the IMF warns that "the dangers and weaknesses" remain. Greece’s bankruptcy would drag the ECB into huge losses, possibly amounting to €110 billion of exposures to banks and about €20 billion spent on purchasing Greek government bonds. The ECB could just as well print money for its recapitalisation, but Germany thinks this would be a catastrophe.

The outcome for the market is rather difficult to predict, and political consequences are also likely. Quite a few governments facing stronger anti-European movements will follow the Greek vicissitudes with heightened concern.

Tags: BBC publication Grexit SYRIZA European Central Bank
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