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Alpha Bank has opposed the Troika

26 January 2014 / 15:01:40  GRReporter
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"Two of the most impressive events in the Greek economy in 2013 included the absolutely successful restructuring and recapitalization of the banking system and the budget’s much better than expected implementation, with the achievement of a primary budget surplus of more than 1.5 billion euro (0.8% of GDP) in 2013.

Furthermore, the fall in GDP was lower in 2013, and the recovery will be even higher in 2014 compared to the expectations of the Troika. Therefore, what is the exact purpose of further delays of the transfer of negotiated tranches for the financing of the Greek adjustment programme?

It is certain that these new delays will have a negative impact on the economic recovery and the restoration of confidence in the Greek banking system and prevent the return of deposits in the country," said Alpha Bank economic analysts in the latest weekly newsletter of the bank.

"According to the latest analysis, delays will increase the risk of default of the budget for 2014 and may create financial gaps which can be avoided if the Greek economy is given a breather. The Greek economy is recovering despite the pressure from the Troika, which hinders its functioning with natural levels of liquidity or in a normal economic climate. Budgets for 2012 and 2013 have been fulfilled much better than was programmed, despite predictions of the Troika and huge delays and uncertainties, created before the transfer of the instalments. These budgets have been fulfilled correctly because the Greek government has made significant progress with regard to the implementation of the requirements of the Troika. Therefore, what is the reason for the late transfer of planned tranches of the programme for financial support?" asked Alpha Bank’s newsletter.

Meanwhile it became clear that today the government will send the Troika alternative proposals on outstanding issues, as Finance Minister Yiannis Stournaras said yesterday after the meeting with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras and Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos.

Venizelos has asked for the preservation of the optimistic climate for economic development, assuring that efforts are continuing. All topics have been discussed and things are under control, he told journalists. When asked about the statements of European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn, who said that the discussion of the ways to reduce the national debt will begin in the summer, Venizelos said that he believed that the discussion could begin after the confirmation of Eurostat’s data, and this is an issue which is regulated by governments.

Yesterday in Davos, Olli Rehn said that negotiations for the financial programme for 2015-2016 as well as for the Greek debt will begin in the summer. They were expected to start in the spring as soon as Eurostat confirmed the country's financial results for last year. Rehn said that examination of the Greek programme will be completed in the coming months, and expressed his hope that experts of the Troika will return to Athens in late January.

In an interview for the Wall Street Journal, Olli Rehn said that Greece must finish what it has started. According to him, Greece cannot get all the money from the bailout, if the first evaluation of the programme is not completed.

Meanwhile, two polls have shown that SYRIZA has about 1% advantage over other political parties among voters, and according to a third poll, this advantage is now 4.9%.

According to the first poll, carried out by Alco Agency and published in Proto Thema newspaper, SYRIZA has an advantage over New Democracy, with the support of 22.2% of voters against 21.6% for New Democracy. 57% of respondents believe that SYRIZA does not have enough staff to implement the programme, and 67% said that they did not believe that if the party won it would keep its promises.

The results of the second poll by Metron Analysis for Ethnos newspaper are similar. According to these results, with a total of 20.5% of voters' preferences, SYRIZA has an 0.8% advantage over New Democracy which has 19.7% of voters' preferences.

Both polls ranked Golden Dawn third, with 7.7% and 6.9%, respectively, followed by PASOK (4.7% and 4.3%), the Communist Party (4.6% and 3.4%) and the Independent Greeks party (4.3% and 3.2%). As for the Democratic Left, according to the poll by Metron Analysis, it will not enter parliament (2.5%) and according to the poll by Alco, it will pass the 3.2% barrier.

Both polls show that the majority of citizens do not want early elections - 45% in the first poll and 59% in the second one.

Antonis Samaras is the most suitable prime minister in both polls, with 33% against 27% for Alexis Tsipras in the first poll and 31% against 16% in the second one.

Another poll by Palmos Analysis for TVXS shows that SYRIZA leads with 25.9% against 21% for New Democracy. Golden Dawn ranks third with 7.6%.

The Independent Greeks party ranks next with 3.9%, followed by the Communist Party with 3.8% and PASOK with 3.3%. Democratic Left 1.6% remains outside parliament. The Green Environmentalists have 1.8% and LAOS - only 1.1%.

11.9% have not decided who to vote for.

If the votes of the undecided are distributed, SYRIZA will lead with 32.3% against New Democracy with 27.2% and Golden Dawn will have 9.3%. The Independent Greeks party will rank fourth with 5.9%, followed by the Communist Party with 5.8% and PASOK with 4.9%, while Democratic Left will struggle to pass the 3% barrier with 2.7%.

Tags: Alpha bank negotiations Troika Yiannis Stournaras polls Alexis Tsipras SYRIZA Antonis Samaras New Democracy
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