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Without the tranche from the lenders Greece will proceed to new elections in May

04 March 2015 / 21:03:17  GRReporter
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Of course, it is. Re-launching the former state broadcaster ERT is also unilateral action. Moreover, it is due to the fact that in order to support it, the government said it would increase the user fee. However, it is actually a tax in favour of third parties. The fact that the government calls it otherwise does not change anything. The lenders are aware that it is a tax in favour of third parties and that Greece is committed to eliminate all such taxes. The European partners may declare at any time that the government cannot re-launch ERT and will do so.

As we have seen, the European Central Bank had intervened in the decision on non-performing bank loans. Things are not easy. It is not clear whether the government would be able to apply such "popular" bills even if it were able to vote them.

Although it has not been clearly said, it seems that the government is preparing to increase VAT. Is such a measure grounded? How will it affect consumption? Where will it find its possible application?

In my opinion, March will be crucial for this. If the government fails to provide the required amount of about 7 billion euro, which it cannot secure through internal borrowing, it should obtain some assistance from the European Union.

If this does not happen, the government would be forced to proceed to a dramatic increase in VAT on basic consumer goods, food products. The statement of Minister of Finance Yanis Varoufakis that the government will increase VAT only on goods that will not affect the majority of citizens is funny, to put it mildly. Obviously, it will increase the tax on goods that can bring an increase in government revenue.

So far, it is not clear how this goal can be achieved, as in periods of illiquidity taxpayers refrain from paying VAT and it is clear from the statistics - the obligations due to unpaid taxes amount to 1 billion euro for the time being. Moreover, we do not yet know the exact amount that will enter the state funds. Imposing the tax does not mean that it will be received.

The problems to be solved are very serious and they are due to Varoufakis’ theory, according to which Greece wants no credit, having failed to secure debt restructuring prior to that. He has been repeating this theory since 2010, when he was still an adviser to George Papandreou. But the difference between thinking of a theory and becoming a finance minister of a country and implementing it is huge. The last tranche of the aid package amounting to 7.2 billion euro, which he refused to take, may lead to Greece’s default, de facto and de jure.

Has the government managed to handle deposit outflows from banks and is a banking crisis possible?

I think it has not. Deposit outflow continues. Allegedly, the real money in Greek banks amounts to less than 5 billion euro at present and it is not yet clear when this process will stop.

While the cabinet itself continues to cause instability and concerns about Greece's exit from the euro zone, there will be capital flight. This is quite logical.

Those who are withdrawing their money now are holders of small deposits in the range of 5-10-12 thousand euro. Big "fish" transferred theirs abroad a long time ago.

Do you think that the government measures to secure funds in the state budget include a cut in bank deposits?

There is no money in the banks which is why it is not doing so. If the government paid its debts to the IMF and the bonds due in March, it would have no money to pay salaries and pensions at the end of the month. If there were no money and it decided to cut deposits, it would not obtain money in fact because the nominal value of the deposits might be 130 billion euro but their actual value is well below 10 percent for the time being and in violation of the "Basel 2" agreement. So, whatever they cut from the less than 5 billion euro available, this money will not be sufficient to pay salaries and pensions.

How has Greece managed to set against itself not only Germany, but also Spain and Portugal?

This is because nobody can accept that you go and say that you do not recognise the contracts signed by the previous government. Agreements are concluded between states, not between governments. By this logic, no government would admit the signature affixed by the previous one.

The second reason is that you cannot say that I, the party that won 36% of the votes of 10 million Greeks, will change the whole of Europe. This cannot happen. The rest cannot accept that. And this is even truer in the case of Spain, Portugal and Ireland, which have made sacrifices and managed to emerge from their memoranda.

Not to mention other countries where the standard of living is much lower than in Greece but who still participate in the rescue programme. Precisely those categories of countries are the most opposed to Greece now.

How long will this cabinet survive in your opinion, especially in view of the permanent thoughtless actions of its members?

The life of each government is directly related to the profitability of the opposition. Currently there is no opposition in Greece. New Democracy is entering the phase of introversion, PASOK is virtually non-existent and Stavros Theodorakis’ Potami party aims at entering the government, not at overthrowing it.

In this situation, the government can survive unless something goes wrong, for example banks run out of money and put a ceiling of 100 euro per week. Then things will totally change.

Tags: PoliticsSYRIZAEarly electionsFundingEurozoneYanis VaroufakisBank depositsTrancheBailoutMonitoring
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