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Will "Grexit" return in 2014?

30 December 2013 / 17:12:58  GRReporter
3807 reads

The ghost of Greece's exit from the Eurozone (known as Grexit) has not disappeared. It may return, not because the economic situation of the country will get worse, but for the opposite reason. This would be a huge shock to financial markets.

Journalists from the German edition of the Wall Street Journal went into this topic.

They argued that the Greek crisis is something that still scares markets and prophecies about the exit from the Eurozone are unreliable.

"It will have the resources to leave"

But, as stated, this cannot draw away the attention from the finding that the risk of "Grexit" has not been avoided, but merely postponed. They explained that "the key question for economists - whether Greece will remain in the Eurozone - lies in the relationship of the country’s subordination to its creditors. In 2012 and 2013, the return to the drachma failed, since Greece could not finance itself.

In 2014, however, economists believe that with the primary budget surplus and a positive trade balance, the country will have the financial resources to leave the Eurozone. Arguments in favour of Grexit are obvious: Greece is entering its sixth consecutive year of economic recession and there is no information about a return to growth.

The two journalists believe that the optimism of the Greek government does not find an answer, since, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the recession will continue, and Greeks have long lost hope, since the end of the crisis seems to be far away. The newspaper refers to an analysis of the American economic management company Renaissance Capital, according to which there are two unemployed per worker. This is the highest unemployment rate in the world. In order to change this ratio, a miracle in the labour market is needed.

A return to the new drachma?

As for competitiveness, wages in Greece may have decreased, but they are higher in comparison to the Polish or Hungarian ones. However, the journalists praised the primary surplus, which the Greek government believes it will achieve next year and emphasized that now, when Greece can meet its basic needs alone, it would be a good time to leave the Eurozone and return to the new drachma, which would be a stable currency and would solve many problems of the Greek economy.

"But with its own currency, prospects for a greater development of the trade balance would increase; for a short period, the drachma would be dramatically undervalued and the country’s competitiveness, mainly in tourism, would be much better," noted commentators.

"If Greece really replaces the euro with a new drachma, bearing in mind the current conditions, such a scenario is actually very realistic," said the two commentators. As for SYRIZA, they said that if the party came to power, there would be an escalation of relations with the Troika.

At the beginning of 2014 Greece is obliged to negotiate a new memorandum with the Troika, this can be seen as a start of an exit of the Eurozone. This perspective is even more realistic, if Germany continues to insist on strict compliance with reforms. A return to the drachma would be a huge shock to markets.

Tags: exit from the Eurozone primary surplus drachma Grexit
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