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The tripartite coalition will not disintegrate easily

02 October 2012 / 21:10:39  GRReporter
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Anastasia Balezdrova

Yiannis Koutsomitis is a director and a film producer. At the same time, he closely monitors the political and economic developments in Greece and is one of the leading commentators on social media. He commented on the results of the first 100 days of the government for the readers of GRReporter as well as on the changes in the Greek public opinion, the illegal immigration, the media and the film about Mohammed that sparked wild protests and violence in many Muslim countries.

Mr. Koutsomitis, the first 100 days of government passed a week ago. Which of the things that had to be done were done, and which were not?

As you know, it was particularly hard for the three parties with different ideologies to unite around a common programme. The main factor for this was the real possibility for Greece to end up outside the euro zone and therefore, outside the European Union. There is a problem, of course. All three parties had described in their election campaigns things very different from those they could actually implement. Now, they are in a very difficult position from a political point of view: All three leaders have been forced to abandon their campaign promises.

The truth is that some changes in the reorganization of the problematic public sector have been initiated: the Ministry of Development has signed an agreement with the European Investment Bank to open the funding programmes, mergers and closures of government offices have been announced and other similar acts. The problem is that the public sector is actually "frozen". Unofficially, it has stopped the payments to individuals and private companies. So, the whole country is awaiting the big tranche of 31.5 billion euro under the bailout agreement in order for life to continue consistently. This means that some things were done, but others cannot be done, because they depend entirely on the, now notorious, negotiations with the supervisory Troika.

Do you think that the governing coalition will endure? Do centripetal or centrifugal forces prevail in it?

It depends on the outcome of the negotiations. If the summit in Brussels on 19 October or later is positive for Greece, if the tranche is paid, we are able to reschedule our debt and the problem of Greece’s remaining in the euro zone is resolved in the longer term, then the coalition can last for a long time. In this case, things will stabilize to a certain degree.

Clearly, this sharp reduction in the standard of living will cause reactions. I do not know if any of the three parties will try to force the other two and trigger early elections. However, history and the past have shown us that those who brinjg about early elections may lose from this. So, I think that if the developments are positive for Greece, the next elections in the country will be the European elections in 2014.

However, if the result is negative, if there are problems or the solution is still inconclusive, there will be very serious shocks. One of them is the possible fall of the government and the resignation of the Prime Minister would possibly cause it. There are two solutions in this case: Early elections or a caretaker government. I would like to completely exclude the third option, which is outside the framework of the constitution. Unfortunately, we cannot rule it out completely these days. I do not mean only the publication in To Vima newspaper, but the real possibility of destabilization in the event that Greece defaults.

According to polls, Golden Dawn seems to be the third political force in the country. What is the reason for its upsurge and what could this bring?

I think there are three reasons. The first reason is the change in the daily lives of people in large urban centres, which was caused by the arrival of large numbers of immigrants. Government services have failed to deal with this phenomenon so that it does not affect so dramatically the lives of citizens. Golden Dawn found this gap in the functioning of public authorities and other parties and it has taken advantage of it. No party has submitted a proposal to actually solve the problem. In fact, what Golden Dawn offers cannot be applied either. Since a legitimate way of how these people could return to their countries has not yet been escogitated, the only logical solution in their minds is to load illegal immigrants onto ships and then sink them in the sea.

The second reason is that bourgeois parties are no longer winning the people's confidence. Many people ignored the ideology of Golden Dawn - it has attracted them with the rhetoric that it is against the system, whatever that may mean for each person individually. The majority of people believe that the system is to blame for the destruction of the country and the consequences for the individuals. So, a party that is actually outside the system appears as a response to the shabby and corrupt parties, which bear the blame for the present state of Greece.

The third reason is the political activism of the members of Golden Dawn. They help the elderly, give away free food and provide protection to people who have no other support. This is due again to the lack of action by the state, which is required to watch over the security of citizens, to take care of the elderly and help the needy.

Golden Dawn’s actions remind me of a combination of Hamas and the Ku Klux Klan. They have obviously studied the modus operandi of these organizations, and how they managed to get close to large social groups.

For me, the rise of Golden Dawn is not necessarily a rise of neo-Nazism. It is rather an increase in the voice of the people's protest against the developments. At this point, I think that the question of Golden Dawn’s ideology is secondary.

The members of Golden Dawn make every effort to hide their ideology too but it is a reality. What could it bring?

It's not just the attacks of the members of Golden Dawn - chasing illegal immigrants, breaking up their stalls, etc. The dangerous thing in my opinion is that violence against any opponent establishes its identity in the minds of a large part of the society. We have seen in recent days how this united far left formations and subsequent clashes with the far right followed. I am afraid that we will witness small "civil wars." Only political and economic stabilization of the country can put an end to this phenomenon.

Do you think the police plan to catch illegal immigrants provides a solution to the problem?

Firstly, I should say that it has yielded one result. Athens today is very different from what it was in the early summer. Beyond a doubt it should be clear who the people who live in the city centre are.

However, there is the question about the conditions in detention centres and what happens to immigrants after that. So far, there is no clear answer to this question. It is not clear how the country of origin of each immigrant will be determined and what procedures will be triggered to return him or her there. All this raises concerns that the centres for temporary detention could become centres for long-term detention with unpredictable consequences. But, on the other hand, it is not possible for all these people to walk aimlessly in the streets under these conditions of high unemployment, some of them being involved in petty, and others in more serious, crimes. By this, I mean that the police plan solves the problem, but not completely.

You are following closely the developments in PASOK. Do you think the party will be able to regain its previous response among the public as the exponent of the centre-left space?

I think it is very difficult. It is not only because of the bad election results, but mostly because there is no response among young people. Currently PASOK is expressing people, bearing the atmosphere of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s.

It is not only PASOK’s problem but of the entire centre-left space from the perspective that it is not clear what it offers in times of severe austerity and minimal chances for the implementation of the so-called "left politics". The coming years do not allow Greece to apply such a model. Therefore, all that space must think over what it wants to express and explain its proposal within today's conditions. My fear is that if they continue with the existing ideological framework, they will fall into despair. The old theory that we redistribute the wealth of the country sounds just like a joke at present. It is simply because there is no wealth and no one is able to implement a social policy in the presence of a decayed public sector. So, it is necessary to hold discussions and take decisions that might be in contrast to the ideological framework of the left. It must decide what it will propose as a model of development of Greece after things get back to their normal. Currently, any vision for this is lacking.

We have seen many protests taking place lately but the attendance may be defined as weak. What is the reason for this?
 
I think there are three reasons for this. The first is that people are convinced of their desire to keep Greece in the euro zone, as indicated by all opinion polls and despite the crisis. It is gradually becoming clear that this is the purpose of these tough negotiations. I think it meant simply a cut in income for the majority of people before that. They did not believe anything was threatening the country. Now, the majority of people realize that the country is on the brink of collapse.

The second is the feeling that the protests do not yield results. The previous economic measures were adopted in 2010 and 2011, the same is expected to happen with the new ones.

The third reason is that during some protests, the clashes were so fierce that many people who want to protest do not want to be associated with such acts.

I think the movement of protesters no longer exists in practice at the level of street protests. Unfortunately, it has moved to another level. Many people have given up making any effort, they have no incentive to work and create, and I think this is more dangerous than holding several violent demonstrations.

What is the role of the media in this situation?

Their influence is very strong. I disapprove of their position from the beginning of the crisis to today. It is quite clear that their policies and positions are determined by the role they expect to play the "next day" and how they can survive. It's easy to declare yourself in favour of denial and protest and to self-proclaim a colour-bearer, in charge of communications of this movement.

But this is not the role of the media. They must be objective and unfortunately, very few Greek media fall into this category and the large ones are not among them for sure.

Another problem is the misconception among journalists that they need to be commentators as well, that they need to present their personal political positions. Cases of fair and balanced information presented are rather an exception in the Greek media. I would say that we often prefer to read articles in foreign media than in the Greek ones.

However, they do not meet the standards for balanced content of their own and European productions in their programmes, whether relating to their information or the entertainment side. So, they themselves undermine the end product.

Last week, the police apprehended a young man, just because he had uploaded a satirical profile on the social network Facebook. Is there freedom of speech in Greece?

I would say that it does not exist at all levels. It applies to many things, but apparently, some topics are forbidden. This anachronistic law, which hardly exists in any other European country, is still in force in Greece. Although most parties came out against the arrest of the youth, none of them proposed to cancel the law. So, there could be a new case after a few months and a new arrest might follow because police and prosecutors are obliged to observe the law. I think it's a question of political will. Many parties are not ready to confront the voices of intolerance. At the same time, many people are believers, but are against intolerance. I disagree that people who do not believe in God have no right to express their opinion. Otherwise, we will have no right to call Greece a European country; we should call it Iran instead. In this case, one of the parties has to take the necessary courage and propose cancellation of the law. It would be really interesting to see then who are those ready to say goodbye to some of their supporters and in what way.

All parties are afraid of the fate of the government of Costas Simitis in early 2000 when the Church organized protests against the decision to not state a person's religion on their identity card. Many commentators argue that the specific government fell because of its collision with the Church.

You are a director and a producer. What is your opinion about the film that stirred the spirits in Muslim countries, and how would you comment on this outburst of violence?

I watched a little more than half of the excerpt of the film uploaded on Youtube, but not consistently, because it is really terrible. Not only in terms of the propaganda it is making but as regards video quality too. This thing cannot be defined as a film, it's just ridiculous.

The main issue is that its creators had intended to cause confusion and this is quite clear. I am not in the position to know who would do this and why.

The film and the response to it were negligible. As far as I learned, it was shown in a small cinema in Los Angeles in the summer. There were 200 to 300 viewers at most. The big fuss came after an Egyptian TV       devoted hours to the analysis of this film. They had invited Muslim Imams - representatives of extremist Islam in Egypt to comment on it and they excited so many people that they started going out in the streets and demonstrating in a violent way.

Certainly, there is a confrontation between the extreme Islam and the West. Jihad, revolts in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Arab Spring in some cases are associated with this conflict. The question is how to help moderate Islam to not give in to extremists. I have been following the developments in Tunisia after the first democratic elections. The government, which has formed, involves moderate and far parties. I often read calls for support from the president himself to the West because the danger for these countries to fall into the trap of extremism is significant.

This is a big discussion. It is surely necessary to raise the level of education and to improve the living conditions of the people there. The model of development, which they will choose cannot copy that of the West because the social and cultural conditions there are quite different. It is necessary to change things slowly. Otherwise, the threat of extremism is very serious.

But, after the arrest of one of the producers, the protests faded somewhat. The film was banned in some countries and the case will be forgotten at some point, without necessarily meaning that something like this will not happen again later.

However, when such a frivolous story goes so far as to threaten the peace of the world we understand how powerless the political departments of the states are sometimes. For several years, President Barack Obama has been trying to establish good relations with the moderate governments in Muslim countries but some strange guys made a poor quality film in the space  of a summer, thus cancelling out the entire US foreign policy. It sounds crazy, but this is what happened actually.

Tags: PoliticsSocietyTripartite coalitionProtestsYiannis Koutsomitis
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