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The Communist Party and the ultra left Antarsia that are to the left of SYRIZA are opposition parties by definition and I do not believe that they will agree to participate in an office with SYRIZA or to become part of the government in general. I.e., talks with parties to the left of SYRIZA are pointless.

However, the parties that are to the right of it, willy-nilly, will have to consider participating in a government coalition. I mean PASOK, Potami and even New Democracy, although they are now exchanging quite harsh remarks. But this is something expected within the context of an election campaign.

It all depends on how many seats SYRIZA will obtain. But even if it obtains an absolute majority in parliament, it will be in its favour to find some partners that, if not for anything else, could serve as its alibi. SYRIZA will need it.

I would not dare to guess whether it could create a coalition, because it is quite isolated, among other things. Its rhetoric is so hostile to other parties that it itself is creating problems and cutting the bridges of partnership relations after the elections. The only certain thing is that it will have difficulties.

Is there a probability of new elections within a year?

I think that such a probability is not excluded, either a month after the elections on 25 January or later in the year. Everything will depend on the balance of political forces in parliament and the stability of the new cabinet. And it will be anything but stable.

It is important to look at the dates: the memorandum expires on 28 February and there are already talks about a possible 6-month extension by creditors, so that the new government has time for negotiations on a new agreement.

New elections in February will make the negotiations with creditors more difficult, if not impossible. I.e. there is a small probability of new elections immediately after these on Sunday. However, there is a great probability of them taking place later in, or at the end of, the year.

On what will it depend?

It will depend on whether SYRIZA will be able to form a stable government in conjunction with the inevitable split that I have already mentioned, and whether it will have a parliamentary majority.

Another option is for SYRIZA to split, and for the people of Panagiotis Lafazanis (leader of the Left Platform - author’s note) to leave the party and for its government to obtain the support of other parties.

In all cases, the government that SYRIZA will form after 10 days or two weeks will have no great future, because it will not be stable.

Is there a probability of SYRIZA failing to form a cabinet and of the exploratory mandate to form a government being submitted to the second party?

If we look at the percentages of the parties in the polls, New Democracy and Potami or New Democracy and PASOK will not have a parliamentary majority and will not be able to form a government. The possible government must be formed around SYRIZA. If it wins 145 or 151 seats, in no way will the other parties be able to form a government. In all cases, the next cabinet will involve SYRIZA. If the talks with the potential partners do not work, there will be new elections.

However, I believe that SYRIZA will not dare to take Greece to new elections, because all remember what happened to the double elections in 2012. It will hardly be able to win the new elections in February with an absolute majority. To the contrary, it may pay dearly for this.

Moreover, the creditors are so angry that they will simply not allow the country to end up in a new election period nor a new extension. At the same time, Greece will not benefit from this, because it will remain without funding. SYRIZA will assume a huge, historic responsibility and I think it will not risk that.

I guess it would rather be able to form a provisional government, which it could call whatever it wants, a government with a special mission, etc., in order to sign a new agreement with the creditors and hold new elections later in the year. However, it is not in its favour to put Greece into an adventure with new elections in February.

Are the fears of Grexit grounded?

It is possible. And SYRIZA should not take that risk in order to avoid a similar "accident" because it would assume responsibility for it.

The incredible statements that we hear from various members of SYRIZA every day make it clear that not all are aware of this. But I think that at least the main group around leader Alexis Tsipras understands this.

The consequences of such an event will be felt worldwide because the euro is a global currency. Whether there will be Grexit or not, a severe banking crisis in Greece in the coming months seems almost certain. It is not excluded that the events of Cyprus at the beginning of 2013 will reoccur, i.e. the limited access to deposits and the severe lack of liquidity in the market.

In this case, the new cabinet will have two choices: either to borrow from the open market at very high interest rates or to sign very fast and very urgently a new agreement with the creditors in order to be under the protection of the European Central Bank.

I do not want to think what might happen if Greece would leave the euro zone, nor to imagine what the consequences would be.

What are the main sectors that a potential SYRIZA government would try to change and what would the changes be (economics, public sector, police, foreign policy)?
 
A few days ago, I visited the official website of SYRIZA. A lot of documents on it are presented in the form of a debate in which citizens can discuss how to shape the new policy of SYRIZA as a government.