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The credit rating agency Standard & Poor's stated that if Greece proceeds voluntarily to deferred payment of part of the debt with private owners of Greek government bonds this would be considered a credit event and the state will be declared bankrupt. The second bailout for Greece for the period 2011-2014 requires voluntary participation of private owners in the extension of foreign debt payments.

They argued from the agency that there have been different scenarios on the topic in recent weeks, but the details are not quite clear yet. In the middle of June this year, S & P downgraded Greece from B to CCC with a negative outlook. It is already clear that they will not forgive Greece and will declare it insolvent if it defers the debt payments.

At the same time, European banks are waiting for the results of the new stress test which are expected after 15 days. The test suggests that the troubled countries of the euro zone such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland should bolster their banking markets. In other words, mergers and takeovers of smaller financial institutions are expected, so as to avoid more dramatic developments.

If the banks in the countries of the periphery of Europe pass the test with 5% in accordance with the financial stability Core Tier I indicator, and the banks from Western European countries pass the same stress test with an average of 7.5%, then the financial institutions from the periphery will be forced to raise their capitalization with the difference between the two results. The experts of the European banking regulator and the European Central Bank will watch closely the capitalization of Greek banks which are currently under the highest pressure due to the adverse macroeconomic conditions.

An independent supervisory authority and the European banking regulator will assess the state of the banks rather than the supervisors in each country. Immediately after the current stress test the Greek banks will have to start preparing for the next which will be after five months. Then the financial stability Core Tier I indicator will be raised to 10% and the banks will have to introduce the necessary internal reforms until then to meet the specific base. Bankers commented that the banks that are unable to meet the inferior limit will again have to resort to a capital increase or even to sell shares below the stock value to raise the necessary funds.

This year's stress testing of banks is expected to be much more rigorous than that conducted in the summer of 2010. The financial markets and many economic analysts said then that the stress test was extremely light for the European banks and it did not reflect the real situation in the financial institutions. The financial stability Core Tier index was much lower - 6%, and the Greek Agricultural Bank (ATEbank) did not pass then while Piraeus passed right on the brink of 6%.

The lack of access to capital markets and the severe macroeconomic situation, which seems will not change in a positive direction soon, showed that Greek banks will not get away without mergers. However, no bold steps were taken in this direction so far. The Greek edition Imerisia presents different scenarios in which the National Bank of Greece is in constant negotiations with Alpha Bank and Eurobank. There are other scenarios in which Eurobank is interested in the acquisition of Alpha Bank and those informed claim that all assumptions are now possible. The only actual merger so far is of Postbank (TT), which still has significant government share, with the small T Bank.

"As I said in the past, the greater concentration in the banking system under good conditions and on the base of good planning and execution, could give very good results for the stability of the banking system, the shareholders and the economy as a whole." This is the statement of the Eurobank CEO Nikos Nanopoulos at the bank’s general meeting this month. The Executive Director of the National Bank of Greece Apostolos Tamvakakis is also clear that the Greek banking system should take bold steps in the reorganization of the financial market in the country.

This is the opinion of the Chairman of Piraeus Bank Michalis Sallas too, who has said recently that the merger should start as soon as possible, but when the circumstances are suitable. Piraeus is the fourth largest Greek bank, which recently revived its capital base by including new international collaborations with Russian, Czech and Arab partners. Despite the desire for stabilization and consolidation of the banking system, major market players have not yet opened their cards.