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Redrawing borders in the Balkans has never taken place without bloodshed

18 May 2015 / 19:05:00  GRReporter
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It is known that the idea of ​​creating a so-called "Greater Albania" has been recently circulating among the Albanian communities. They do not call it this because the name is provocative. They do not even call it "Natural Albania" as they did a few years ago. Now they are talking about a "national unity" that means Albania’s unification with Kosovo, as stated by Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama and why not unification between Albanians from Presevo and Bujanovac in Serbia with Kosovo and between Albanians from Tetovo and other regions in Macedonia with Albania and Kosovo at a later stage.

What would the unification of Albanian communities mean to the rest of the countries in the region?

Undoubtedly, none of those countries would tolerate this because it would cause a change of state borders from the time of the Balkan wars. I think the intervention of Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Boyko Borisov was not at all accidental. It made a great impression and I would interpret it in the following way: The issue is not so much that the 90 thousand people with Bulgarian identity and holders of Bulgarian passports could be in danger. Anyway, I do not think these people would be at risk. However, this is a very good excuse for Bulgaria to intervene in the possible crucial events and enter Macedonia. I have read that Sofia is now transporting troops and carrying out training on the border with FYROM. I do not mean that Bulgaria is a factor of instability. But when the map of the Balkans is about to be redrawn all countries are preparing for this eventuality.

It is no coincidence that Serbia is increasing its troops in Presevo and Bujanovac too. Athens has also issued a verbal response. No country could be indifferent to the likelihood of such a development because it would cause a domino effect. The Serbs in Bosnia have already openly announced that their aim is to unite with Serbia and I am asking myself how the Serbs from northern Kosovo would accept the national unification of Kosovo with Albania after its announcement by Edi Rama. Clearly, they would turn to Belgrade.

The holders of Bulgarian passports and the people with allegedly Bulgarian identity who are currently living in the regions between Bulgaria and FYROM would also want to join Bulgaria. The Greeks in southern Albania might wish to unite with Greece, which is their historical demand.

In such a situation, things would inevitably lead to a redistribution of the deck in the Balkans, and that has never happened without bloodshed.

FYROM’s Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski is highly responsible for this situation. He may become a detonator because his nationalist hysteria has caused the unification of the Albanian communities on a firm nationalistic basis.

There are other factors and these include Russia which is trying to regain positions in the region mainly through Serbia. Moscow’s attempt aims to benefit from the dissatisfaction and disappointment of the Slavic population with FYROM’s delayed accession to the EU and some other actions on the part of the West. In Skopje, they even call Prime Minister Gruevski "the little Putin" because the system that supports his government is a copy of Russia’s authoritarianism and corruption.

Under some scenarios, the events were provoked by the United States and the aim was to support the construction and passage of the Turkish Stream pipeline through FYROM. That is ridiculous to me because those who follow the events in the region know that the developments associated with Nikola Gruevski did not start a few months ago, which was the case with the discussion on the pipeline. The commotion associated with him started at least 3-4 years ago.

In conclusion, I would like to emphasize that I remain firmly behind the view that one of the new factors that are threatening the stability of the Balkans is the operation to radicalize Islam. The countries of the Arabian Peninsula are financing the operations in Albania, Kosovo, FYROM and Bosnia to spread radical Islam.

On the other hand, the mosques are in conflict with the so-called "Erdogan’s Islam", i.e. the Islamic model popularized by Turkey.

All those details are the components of a mixture that could rapidly become explosive and my concerns are that, if not addressed, the Balkans could very soon face heavy turmoil again.

What could we expect to happen in FYROM in the coming days?

I do not know whether Bozhidar Dimitrov’s forecast that the government of Nikola Gruevski would fall within 10 days will materialize. What I know is that Gruevski is in an extremely serious position. He is under complete isolation on the part of the international community, he is facing the conflict between the communities and bearing the burden of the sins of his governing, which are corruption, manipulation of justice, silencing the media, the authoritarian way of government. Therefore, he is now fully aware that if he continues to govern in this way his country will never cross the EU and NATO’s threshold. A large part of the Slavo-Macedonian public opinion has also realized this and the first signs of a split between the Macedonians in the country are already apparent. In my personal opinion, the countdown for Nikola Gruevski has begun. I do not think he will be able to remain in office for long.

What would happen afterwards is a matter of another discussion. In all cases, as regards the relations between the different communities in FYROM, he is paying the price for his incredible nationalism and arrogance and for his desire to form a national identity among Macedonians thus turning the entire Albanian community against himself.

Tags: PoliticsShooting in KumanovoMacedoniaAlbanian communityFYROM Stavros TzimasBalkan destabilizationNikola Gruevski
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