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Recent polls before the election clearly show a coalition government

20 April 2012 / 17:04:36  GRReporter
5269 reads

Anastasia Balezdrova 

Publishing the results of opinion polls fifteen days before the elections is banned by law. The polls conducted by three agencies were published in the Greek press today and their results are to a lesser or greater extent identical.

They show that ten parties will manage to enter the next Greek Parliament. According to the poll of Kappa Research, New Democracy has maintained its lead but it will not be able to form its own government. After the allocation of the unclear vote, it seems that the two major parties will win together 45% of the votes and thus will have a parliamentary majority with 170 seats. In particular, New Democracy received 22.5%, PASOK - 19.1%, the Communist Party - 10.6%, the left coalition SYRIZA - 9.1%, Independent Greeks - 7.7%, Democratic Left - 5.4%, Golden Dawn - 5.2%, LAOS - 4%, Democratic Alliance - 3.8%, Green Environmentalists - 3.6% and Drasi - 1.7%.

As for the preferences for the future prime minister, Kappa Research poll gave priority to Evangelos Venizelos at 26.7% against Antonis Samaras, who was preferred by 25.8% of the participants. 59% of them supported the formation of a coalition government and 77% would like the next government to do everything possible for Greece to remain in the euro area.

MARC’s poll confirmed the trend for the entry of ten parties in the next parliament too. According to it, the difference between New Democracy and PASOK was 4.1% and the two parties together collected 39.7% of the preferences. In this case, they will again be a majority with a total of 155 seats.

New Democracy won the preferences of 21.9% of the Greeks, PASOK - 17.8%, SYRIZA - 11%, Independent Greeks - 10.4%, the Communist Party - 9.2%, Democratic Left - 8.8%, Golden Dawn - 5.2%, LAOS - 4.2%, Green Environmentalists - 3.2%, Democratic Alliance – 3%, Drasi - 1.1%.

When asked which of the political leaders is closer to their position, respondents gave almost identical rates to Evangelos Venizelos (15.1%) and Antonis Samaras (15.5%), and 46.4% believe that the elections will bring a coalition government.

In the poll conducted by RASS, New Democracy won 24.1%, PASOK - 17.1%, SYRIZA - 10.3%, Independent Greeks - 9.4%, Communist Party - 8.7%, Democratic Left - 8.4%, Golden Dawn - 4.3%, Green Environmentalists - 3.8%, LAOS - 3.4%, Democratic Alliance - 3.2%, Drasi - 2.2%.

The rate of the unclear vote is particularly high - 19%. 12.4% of those voters said they are not certain for whom they will vote, whereas 59.8% do not agree with the option of a joint government between New Democracy and PASOK. Respondents identified the leader of New Democracy as the most suitable for prime minister with 29.2% and the PASOK leader was preferred by 28.6% of them.

GRReporter contacted the head of the marketing research and communication company MARC Thomas Gerakis to comment on the poll results.

"Two more polls are published in the press today and I feel that, they all show the same things in their own way and to a lesser or greater extent. The first thing is the significant fragmentation of the political system and the weakening of two-party forces. The second thing we observe is the rise of leftist forces. Their strength has increased two-fold. The third is the strong presence of new political parties like Panos Kamenos’ Independent Greeks and the Democratic Left of Fotis Kouvelis as well as the high rates of Golden Dawn.

In particular, we see that New Democracy is the first preference of the participants in all three polls, but this does not provide it with the opportunity to make an independent government. This reduces the difference between the two major parties. Some time ago, it was around 10%. At the same time, the difference with the third party in a row, which is not yet clear, is increasing. There are four candidates for the third place as their rates are almost identical. These are SYRIZA, the Communist Party, Democratic Left and Independent Greeks."

The sociologist confirmed that the vote is still highly uncertain and this is one of the features very sharply distinguishing the upcoming elections from previous races.

"What is absent is a concentration of voters from both major parties. Based on our experience and compared to previous campaigns, we have always observed an increase in the concentration of PASOK and New Democracy voters in the course of the election day and especially in the last days before it. Now, this is still absent.

My opinion is that the election result will be decided in the next fifteen days. We see a low percentage of people convinced of their vote. It is much more certain than ever before that, voters will decide for whom to vote 2-3 days before, or on the election day itself. That is, if the percentage of those who decide on the election day was between 7-10% in elections held in more stable conditions in the country, now it will be much higher, I think.

All scenarios are possible because the uncertainty is very high. Moreover, there will be other developments too - all parties will try to convince voters to vote for them; we will hear what the leaders say in the TV election debate. And we have seen trends change over the past fifteen days in other elections. In practice, these are the conclusions closing the period of publication of poll results."

According to one of the scenarios, the failure to reach a result that will allow the party with the highest number of votes to form an independent government could potentially cause new elections. Thomas Gerakis said the poll results show that a coalition government could possibly be formed.

"What we can say for sure is that the great cycle of independent governments in Greece during the last 35 years is closing now. It seems that we are entering a period of coalition governments. This is one of the demands of people, who have realized that the country has serious problems and believe that alliances between political parties are necessary and that political parties have to understand each other. Simply because problems cannot be solved by one person or one party. Many Greeks have supported this view, not only in the last few days but also in the last few months. Even when we asked them what kind of government they would want after the elections, the majority replied that it would prefer a coalition government. They replied equally clearly to the question about the type of government that will be formed after the elections. Therefore, the question tomorrow will not be what to chose - an independent or coalition cabinet, but what the coalition government will be."


Tags: PoliticsPollsElectionsCoalition governmentParliament
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