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Anastasia Balezdrova

The early elections announced due to the failure of the Greek parliament to elect a new president of Greece will take place in 20 days time. Although the pre-election campaign will officially start tomorrow, the leaders of the two main parties that are fighting for control over the country, namely New Democracy and SYRIZA, have already started their campaign speeches and tours.

Commentators are anticipating that the polarisation will increase, arguing at the same time that it is difficult to predict the outcome of the vote. According to them, it will literally be determined during the last week, as the preference of undecided voters as well as the percentage of the smaller parties will play an important role in this case.

The political crisis that followed the failed presidential elections, the criterion on which Greek voters will base their vote and the possible government coalitions were the topics that GRReporter discussed with political communications advisor Eftichis Vardoulakis.

Mr. Vardoulakis, could this political crisis have been avoided?

Yes, it could if the strategy of the opposition parties had focused on allowing the completion of a complex process and on taking control over the country at a later stage and under better conditions.

What prevailed, however, was the logic of taking advantage of the lead currently given to them by the polls. They have thus triggered elections at a time when, according to all polls, SYRIZA is at the top of the ranking of political parties in order for them to have a greater chance of being elected.

I think that, on the one hand, they have actually increased their chances of winning the elections now, but on the other, they have increased several times the challenges they will face after winning the elections.

Was a political consensus between the ruling coalition and SYRIZA possible, in order to avoid this crisis?

I think it was not. There is not good communication between the government and the opposition. This is one of the problems of the Greek political system not only now, but also in general. However, especially at that moment, there was absolutely no contact. Quite to the contrary, strong tension had been reigning in the political life of Greece for a long time, not only between the government and the opposition, but also between the other smaller parties. The opportunities of achieving consensus within the Greek political system are too small.

Did the personality of the candidate for president proposed by the government play a role?

No, nobody argues that the problem was in the personality of Stavros Dimas. His nomination was fully worthy. The reasons why he did not obtain the required 180 votes to be elected were purely political and had nothing to do with his personality.

On what criteria will the Greek voters base their preference in the coming early parliamentary elections?

There are two main criteria and they are in conflict. One is anger and the other is fear. On the one hand, the opposition is fuelled by the sense of resentment, the desire for the government to lose the elections and for the vote to be "punitive". On the other, there is a sense of fear regarding the possible actions of SYRIZA and anxiety that the vote against what is bad could bring even worse things.

The second trend concerns those voters who still believe that they have something to lose. I.e. people who believe that the country has achieved some stability over the past years, not wanting to take risks by supporting an extreme option with serious consequences.

On the other hand, there are voters who believe that they have nothing to lose and think they have no prospects. Therefore, they prefer their vote to be "punitive" regarding those parties that they consider responsible for the present state of Greece.

What is the probability of SYRIZA being able to form an independent office?

SYRIZA is taking the lead in the polls with a margin of 3% and 5% and the difference with New Democracy has recently decreased. The available data do not suggest that SYRIZA will be able to form an independent office. I think, however, that, because the political situation in Greece is very unstable, all polls contain a large percentage of uncertainty. This is why there have been so many errors in the estimates of the agencies on the outcome of the election race in recent years.

I think that the outcome of the elections will depend on the atmosphere in which the remaining about 15 days will pass, on whether there will be a withdrawal of support for the parties and what mistakes they will make. People do not expect to hear anything positive, since almost everything has been already said over the past year, which was a pre-election year in fact.

The question now is who will make the mistake that will intensify anger or fear. This is the most important element in the pre-election period.

Is a coalition government involving SYRIZA and New Democracy possible?

I think not. Cooperation between the two parties is not probable because whichever of them wins the elections will be able to form a cabinet with one of the smaller parties that will enter parliament.

SYRIZA will form a government with PASOK, To Potami or George Papandreou’s party, if it fails to enter parliament. The same goes for New Democracy. Therefore, whichever party wins the elections will be able to form a government with some or all of the three parties mentioned previously, without the need for a broader coalition.

What changes may occur in the composition of the next parliament?

One of the changes entirely depends on which party will win the elections because this lead ensures a bonus of 50 additional seats. This means that almost 20 percent of the composition will automatically change.

As for the personalities, I do not think that they will change, as the elections are held very fast and there is no time to nominate new persons. Therefore, the majority of the new members will be the most prominent representatives of the parties.

As for the parties, is there a probability of Golden Dawn remaining outside parliament?

No, I think that it will enter it; only its rate will not be as high as it was in the previous parliamentary elections. All polls suggest that it will enter parliament and if we take into account the fact that the majority of the people who will vote for it are hiding this fact from sociologists, we can be sure that it will continue to be a parliamentary force.

Could Alexis Tsipras be the Prime Minister, who will sign the next agreement with the creditors despite his election rhetoric?

I cannot assess whether this could happen. Anyway, the statements concerning the actions of the possible SYRIZA government are not clear. He is now saying that he will request negotiations with the European partners of Greece, without providing a backup plan on what will happen if these negotiations are not successful.

As an analyst, I can only say that this is something that intensifies the feeling of uncertainty in some of the voters.

The time remaining until the elections is short, but is it sufficient to change the preferences of voters?

It is sufficient but this is relative. Once the parties have already said everything, one of the things that will have an impact is the reaction of the economy and international markets during this period, which can increase fear and anxiety.

The second thing, as I said, is which of the two main opponents will make a serious mistake during the pre-election campaign.