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Managers anticipate tough times in 2012

08 July 2011 / 14:07:38  GRReporter
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Bleak are the Hellenic Management Association prospects for the Greek economy. The study of ICAP Group shows that 93% of the interviewed top managers believe the economic situation in the country in the second quarter of 2011 is more difficult than the first three months. Then, 86% of the respondents were of this opinion. The drama about the political government of Greece, the rearrangement of the pawns in the government and the stringent economic measures set out in the austerity plan changed for the worse the real business expectations for the local economy.

The large industrial enterprises which did not register a drop in production seem most stable for now. There are serious concerns about the future of merchants that seem unable to recover after the collapse of their sector since last year. A larger number of the managers in the services sector and of large companies are more positive because they are clearly in more favourable situation than production. The prospects for the next year are not rosy, but they are not absolutely tragic either. 41% of the managers of the largest Greek companies believe the following year will be more favourable to the companies they manage.
 
Long-term capital investment registered a serious growth in industry and a decline in service and trade sectors. The expectations for further investment growth, however, are negative because the macroeconomic environment is not stable enough to ensure a safe return within the preferred terms. The employment rate registered a minimum drop from 54% in the first quarter of 2011 to 53% in the second quarter. Over the previous year, the employment in 17% of the companies offering services increased compared to last year. The increase in commercial companies is 12% and only 5% in production. The expectation ratio of employment in the near future dropped from 97% to 90%.

Beyond the basic questions that managers answer quarterly, they had to answer questions about the second bailout package, the implementation of the Memorandum II, and the long-term debt sustainability. Over 70% of the managers believe that the additional financial aid until the end of 2014 would help temporarily, allowing Greece to take a breath, but insolvency scenarios would soon return. Only 19% believe that the new measures of the socialist government of George Papandreou would calm the markets and the country would return to growth. One in five respondents said that the Greek foreign debt is not sustainable in the long run.

"In an atmosphere of anxiety and uncertainty that is typical for the Greek economy and political situation nowadays, the overall economic ratio of temper fell like almost all other economic rations. The largest decline is in the small and medium enterprises. However, the managers of large companies express a cautious optimism about the economic situation of the country," said the chairman of the Hellenic Management association Michalis Pagidis.

The representative of the association board and CEO of ICAP Group Nikitas Konstantellos defined as positive the fact that one in three managers are optimistic about next year, when the economic situation would be more favourable to their companies and they would operate better, despite the difficulties. Only 21% of them believe it would be worse. "It is worth noting that 7 out of 10 managers believe that the additional bailout together with the implementation of the new memorandum will allow the local economy to take a breath for a while, although it would not restore the international markets’ confidence. In parallel, impressive is the fact that 6 out of 10 managers believe that the debt is not sustainable in the long run," concluded Nikitas Konstantellos.

Tags: EconomyCompaniesManagersGreeceCrisisExpectations for 2012
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