Galery

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I think the fifth monitoring of the bailout programme will finish and then there will be talks about something else. But because in Greece there is fear of terms such as "memorandum", "measures" which they call "reforms", "deficit", "budget", etc., the government aims to obtain an extension of the current second bailout until March 2016, when the programme of the International Monetary Fund expires, instead of doing the right thing, i.e. taking the necessary measures to obtain the 46 million euro and solving the problem. And this in the hope that Greece will then be able to obtain funds from the capital markets. What markets will finance a country that wants to have more civil servants than necessary and pay big salaries, and which does not have an organized pension system? In Greece, despite the miserable financial situation, the payment of high pensions in the public sector and of lump-sum benefits at retirement in the public sector continues as well as early retirement. And all this at the expense of those who are insured at the Social Security Institute IKA and who cannot at all respond to the cuts in their pensions. On top of that, they are being told that it is the result of pressure from creditors, which is not true of course. People in Greece do not even know that there is no lump-sum benefit at retirement in Belgium but there is a ceiling of 2,000 euro on all pensions. No one obtains a dime more than this amount, and there is no early retirement. Whenever you stop working, you cannot retire before the age of 62 years, and the retirement age will become 63 years after some time.

Europeans see what is happening in Greece and have clearly told Athens that if it wants to continue with the current policy it will have to find alone the required money to finance it.

Is there a plan to force the Greek government to carry out real reforms, not just to apply budgetary measures?

Unfortunately, there is no such plan. If there were one, it would already have been applied, for as stated by Professor Daniel Gross, who was a consultant to Jose Barroso, "It is impossible to send the riot forces to Greece. The government is doing what it considers good." It is balancing between the voters and the fear of bankruptcy. Because the real suspension of payments and exit from the euro zone would mean no money in ATMs, no food in supermarkets, no one selling or buying anything, all foreign investors would withdraw, people would be hungry and go out in the streets with arms in hand and everything else one could think of. Because when a country ends up in a total failure, nothing functions in it.

People are not aware of this and they are talking about introducing another currency, etc. Who will make this transition? Would it be the people who are not able to cope with simple issues? If the public administration had the capacity and the ability to make the transition to another currency, it would have been able to handle the situation so that it would not have to take this action. However, as the Greek governments over the past many years did not have the required governing skills, they unfortunately could not cope with the problems. The situation is tragic, but the Greek wants to be a civil servant, receive his or her salary and does not care about anything else. Therefore, Greece is left to the mercy of fate, unless it decides to change.

Is it realistic to expect news about the agreement tomorrow?

There will be no agreement tomorrow. Jean-Claude Juncker does not want to meet in private with Alexis Tsipras, so as not to create the impression of backing down. They will meet with Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and probably someone else. Surely, there will be proposals and an agreement on Saturday or Sunday night, in the best possible case. To be precise, the Euro Working Group will have to consider this agreement, and they will sit in Bratislava on Monday to prepare the EU summit in Luxembourg on 28 June. This is the plan and the only way to strike a deal is for the Greek side to provide reliable and calculated suggestions.

What might follow if this does not happen?

Then "all bets would be off." The cards would be dealt out again and we will see. Of course, I do not know what this would mean to Greek banks because another deposit flight would follow. I do not think the system is so stable and therefore, the Bank of Greece would have to introduce capital controls.

Is there a probability of Grexit?

There are two options. One is for the Greek government to leave the euro zone alone because someone should take the decision on Grexit and the only one that is able to do so is the Greek government.

On the other hand, the introduction of restrictions on withdrawals from ATMs and the inability to pay salaries and pensions would cause a commotion that would hardly allow the government to continue to have its feet on the ground and be able to take such a decision. Obviously, there will be political events.

Therefore, I consider not paying salaries and pensions for several months and closing banks highly probable compared to Greece leaving the euro zone.

What would be the damage to the euro zone due to Grexit?