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The International Monetary Fund wants a 60 percent cut of the Greek debt

23 October 2011 / 19:10:39  GRReporter
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The long night which began with the entry of Greece in the International Monetary Fund in May 2010 will continue for another four years. After the European Commission, which found in a report that Greece had failed to overcome the crisis, but only to stop the deficit, has made no major structural changes in the economy, no privatization was carried out and cannot service its debt, and in its report the International Monetary Fund characterizes Greece as a country that is located in the epicenter of a cyclone – “Greece, the country in the eye of the storm” - which is shaking the euro zone.

In the report, which will be published after the political decisions that are expected to be taken at the summit of the eurozone (today and Wednesday), the International Monetary Fund offers three decision points:

1. For Greece to be granted with the next installment, which will be the last of the memorandum.

2. A bigger “cut” of up to 60 percent to be made, of the initial 21percent of the debt of private individuals, which was decided on July21, in order to overcome the development of the debt, which in 2012 will reach 372 billion Euros, exceeding 170 percent of GDP.

3. To launch a new utility for Greece through the Fund for extended financial facility (EFF), designed for a longer-term intervention of the International Monetary Fund in a country which provides for a longer period for repayment of loans. Greece needs 20 billion Euros more than the package worth 109 billion Euros agreed upon in July.

According to well informed sources, the National Bank of Greece is preparing for the big "cut". Of course, because of its position, the central bank must always be ready for the worst case scenario, as is clear from the report of the International Monetary Fund. If no agreement is reached with private entities (banks, insurance companies, funds) this last minute development of the events must become voluntary, and this will mean that the country is going to "credit event" with all its consequences. The findings on the ineffectiveness of the economic policy are particularly scathing. As noted implemented were measures (increased taxes, reduced wages, pensions and other expenses) of approximately 16 percent of GDP, and the result is to reduce the debt by only 6 percentage points of GDP. Considered important, however, is the fact that the upward movement of deficits is interrupted, which was inevitable due to the great recession and the implementation of austerity measures, which will continue until 2015

As International Monetary Fund experts explain, when a country is facing serious problems due to medium structural weaknesses - mainly because of loss of competitiveness – for the overcoming of which time is needed, it is placed in another category and is supported by the Fund for extended financial facility .

Compared with the assistance provided by the memorandum today (the stand by arrangement), the aid using the basis of the new regulation provides:

* Long-term lending programs with longer repayment periods, in order to be able to help countries to implement structural reforms and mainly to improve their competitiveness.

Within this framework, emphasis will be placed on further liberalization of the labor market, decreasing bureaucracy for attracting investments, and liberalization of all businesses and professions. The support and conditions of the new fund are the "costume" of the International Monetary Fund for economies that are characterized by low growth and large deficits in balance of payments, they have limited access to private capital and require a longer period of adjustment. The program deadline is three years and may be extended to four. The loans will be repaid within four and a half to ten years.

The program will be implemented together with the new package from the European Union, which seeks debt relief and transfer in time of Greek bonds - after 2020 in order to give time to Greece to advance privatization (worth 50 billion Euros) and structural changes mentioned above.

Meanwhile, in an article for the Sunday issue of the newspaper "Vima" and the economic "Financial Times" the former Vice President of the European Central Bank Loukas Papadimas stresses:

"At this moment the most effective and prudent way is to apply the contract of the European leaders, signed in July, and for it be supported appropriately."

Senior adviser for economic affairs to Prime Minister Papandreou warns of possible serious consequences of a large involuntary "cutting" of the debt for Greek banks, insurance funds, the real economy, and ultimately for the Greek taxpayer. Mr. Papadimas, who lives between Boston (where he teaches at Harvard University), Frankfurt (the headquarters of the European Central Bank), Brussels and Athens has undertaken in recent times an informal but very important role - to represent Greece and to balance the pressures from the international decision making centers.

The prestige and recognition enjoyed on the international stage, turn it in a reliable interlocutor of European partners, of representatives of the International Monetary Fund, and mostly of the European Central Bank.

Tags: Politics Greece crisis measures Athens IMF ECB EU
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