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If the pro-European vote is convincing, Tsipras’ government will not stay in power

02 July 2015 / 19:07:32  GRReporter
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Anastasia Balezdrova

The referendum that the Greek government has suddenly announced, urging citizens to declare whether they are approving the agreement proposed by creditors or not, although it is no longer on the negotiating table, has triggered a series of reactions in and outside Greece. One of the most serious among them is the opinion of the Council of Europe, according to which the initiative of the cabinet of SYRIZA and Independent Greeks, approved by the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn, does not comply with international standards for the conduct of referendums.

According to commentators, this is the first time that such an institution is concerned about the possibility of violations being allowed in an election process in Greece after the restoration of democratic order in the country. The causes and consequences of this act of the Council of Europe were the topic of the conversation that GRReporter held with Associate Professor of International Relations at the Panteion University of Athens, Dimitris Keridis.

Mr. Keridis, how would you comment on the opinion of the Council of Europe that the referendum scheduled for 5 July does not comply with international standards?

It is extremely worrying and supplementing the statements of eminent and respected Greek constitutional law experts, namely that the short period of the campaign preceding the referendum is not allowing the Greek people to take a decision in a cool and sober manner.

The fact is that the referendum question is confusing and not clear. Banks are closed and this is causing a series of problems concerning the organization of the referendum, such as the participation of voters who are living far from their home places where they are registered. It is noteworthy that there will be no exit polls as polling agencies are lacking the necessary resources.

What could the practical consequences of this opinion be?

They would not be many. Let us hope that there will be no new opinion on Monday, to report on violations in the procedure of conducting the referendum, especially in the event of a slight difference in the percentages of the "yes" and "no" votes. However, it would be more likely if the government-backed negative vote won. If the "yes" vote won, even by a small margin, no such question would arise because the government is not supporting this vote. It is the government’s responsibility not to allow violations. If the response "no" won with 51% and the response "yes" obtained 49% of votes, this would certainly raise questions.

Let us hope it will not come to that. Greece has a long history of conducting fair elections. But certainly, there are problems.

Could the referendum take place in the presence of international observers?

No, I have not heard such information. Moreover, it will be held very soon in order for such a mission to be organized. I do not think Greece is willing to accept the presence of observers.

Isn’t this procedure in force in view of the fact that Greece is a member of the Council of Europe? Should Greece ask for it?

I think Greece should respond. It has no right to refuse and then suffer the consequences of such a decision.

What might they be?

They might be sanctions and complaints to the Parliamentary Assembly and other bodies. But I do not think that things will go that far. The Council of Europe has demonstrated great tolerance to some of its members such as Russia and Azerbaijan in recent years. I hope we have not yet reached that level.

What is your personal opinion on the referendum?

This concerns a ridiculous procedure that will pose an absurd question based on a proposal that no longer exists. With this decision, the government is seeking to pass the ball to citizens.

It is a big mistake and it has led to a crisis, capital controls and closure of banks. But on the other hand, it cannot easily be cancelled. Furthermore, the European partners want this referendum to take place to allow the Greek people to decide what they want in order for them to take the next action. They want the political scene in Greece to clear because now they have no confidence in this government and therefore do not want to negotiate with it any longer.

What should the actions of the cabinet be if the "yes" vote wins?

It should resign.

Do you think it will do so?

In the event of a compelling difference in favour of the "yes" vote, I do not see how the government could keep this composition. On the other hand, it has a majority in parliament. The other parties would have to unite in a formation of "national consensus" and declare elections at some point. But this could happen only when the situation returned to normal somehow, probably in the autumn, because now, with closed banks and lack of funds, there could be no elections, even if we wanted them.

The government has shot itself in the foot, it has enmeshed itself in its own mesh, serving Greece to Germany "on a platter". And its politicians want the referendum to take place, as is clear from the statements of Angela Merkel and Wolfgang Schäuble because Grexit would follow if the answer "no" won, without them bearing the responsibility for it. No one could blame them for that because everything would happen with the consent of the Greek people, although their vote would be stolen in fact.

I am saying this because, clearly, the Greeks want the euro as their currency, but due to this inconclusive question, the vote will be interpreted in this way. They have already warned us about it, and that they will break any negotiations, which will be followed by bank liquidation, confiscation of all deposits, freezing any kind of European funding, etc. until the issuance of vouchers and payments in a national currency become possible.

Therefore, I think that Europe, and especially Germany, wants the situation to become clear. Greece has fallen into the trap of the insane policy of Alexis Tsipras who has put the party interest above the national.

We are living in a new 1974, in a situation similar to that in which Ioannidis served Cyprus to Turkey "on a platter". Having fallen into the trap he attempted to escape forward, but to no avail. So, we now have a democratically elected government that is following the same insane policy. I thought that democracies were more prudent, but we see that Greek society has gone so far as to fill parliament with representatives of the political extremes, with dark forces that preach violence and lack of freedom, and criminals such as Golden Dawn who in combination with the leftists of SYRIZA are proceeding to such a desperate act.

Let us hope that something can still be saved, even at the last moment. But the prerequisite for this is the dissolution of this government and the formation of a transitional cabinet.

How would you comment on the fact that four members of Independent Greeks said they would support the positive vote?

It is not only them. Others are trying to protect themselves too. On the one hand, their act is good news, but it is late in coming on the other. The induced damage is enormous already. And, of course, they will start trying to avoid assuming responsibilities that will not be only political. Criminalization is common in Greek political life. It is in force even now, especially if the relationships with foreign hedge funds are revealed, as there is some talk of already.

Tags: PoliticsReferendumCouncil of EuropeAlexis TsiprasFalling governmentCapital controlsClosure of banks
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