Galery

1

Frankly speaking, we have been preparing for such a possibility for five years already. We have done a lot, especially in the banking sector so as, not to be exposed to a possible Greek bankruptcy, although still about 20-25% of the Bulgarian banking system is in the hands of Greek banks. They are already fully isolated, with their own accounting, IT systems, management. Therefore, the eventual collapse of the Greek banking sector would in no way have an immediate impact on Bulgaria.

Of course, it would have an indirect impact because we still have a lot of trade and other economic relations with Greece, even in some infrastructure projects the implementation of which depends on both countries. If the Greek public finances collapsed, we would have to deal with them alone. Therefore, yes, there would be serious indirect problems, but they would not be in the first week or month.

How long would the European Central Bank be willing to support Greek banks in your opinion?

The European Central Bank has already shown that it may exclude such assistance at any moment. This has already happened twice, as a warning, and we know that the help can stop literally in one day. Currently, there is no legal basis obliging the European Central Bank to continue to support them. It may decide as early as tomorrow, "That was all, the Greek government is not serious."

The truth is that these things usually happen this way, quickly, in order for the markets not to prepare.

How do you see the development of the euro zone from now on?

I think the development of the euro zone does not depend on whether Greece is in, or out of, it. Until 4-5 years ago, a lot depended on it, but it has already become clear that other countries that are in a difficult situation are managing to emerge from the crisis through bailouts. I would not say that whether the euro zone would develop or not would be associated with a potential Grexit.

In fact, most analysts, maybe including me, state that a possible Grexit would rather help the euro zone because it would show all the other countries that discipline must be observed.

But its effects for Greece would be detrimental. We therefore hope that it would not end up in such a situation.

Is there a chance for Bulgaria to join the euro zone and should it join it?

Yes, it should. We have all chances. The years 2013-2014 have delayed the country by at least 4-5 years due to the doubling of the public debt from 15% to 30% of GDP. Therefore, we have to wait at least 2-3 years to return to the performance we had in 2012. This means that we are talking about 2018-2019.

However, we have all the negative points because our currency is already pegged to the euro but we do not yet have the advantages of low percentage rates, interest rates, etc. Therefore, it is best for us to enter the euro zone as quickly as possible.