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Greece is shown the road to the drachma again

11 August 2011 / 16:08:58  GRReporter
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"If the European debt crisis were an old survival movie, there would be a scene in which the passengers in a lifeboat realize that they don’t have enough food and water for everyone and that someone needs to go over the side. We’re looking at you, Greece." This is the beginning of The New York Times article about the attitudes in the euro area, according to which a growing number of influential economists support this reasoning and particularly Germany, which encounters no liquidity problems. The edition quotes the president of the influential Ifo Institute in Munich, Hans-Werner Sinn: "It is better for all concerned, in particular for Greece, if the country leaves the euro temporarily." He expresses the opinion of not a few German economists who believe that not only Greece but also even Portugal and Italy should leave the monetary union and that it is not right the naughty states to wait on the strong ones.

The opponents of this idea refer to the laws of the European Union, which do not provide for "ejecting" a member from the euro zone. Its proponents, however, emphasize that if the financial aid to Greece is cut off the country simply would have no choice but to voluntarily leave the euro. The newspaper notes, however, that such a development is too extreme - Greek banks would fail, the country would go bankrupt under the weight of its debts, it would have no stable currency to import food and oil. All this would make investors extremely reticent about the whole European Union and its future as well as that of the euro area would be at stake.

The economist of Royal Bank of Scotland Silvio Peruzzo defined for The New York Times this scenario as too risky. "It would set a precedent for other countries leaving the region. And the market would start to flirt with the idea that the euro as a whole doesn’t make sense." Different is the position of Otmar Issing, a former chief economist of the European Central Bank and one of the architects of the common European currency. "If a country does not comply with the conditions agreed on, it should not get further financial aid. A country which does not get further support has to decide what to do." The newspaper recalls that Otmar Issing and Hans-Werner Sinn are very influential in their countries where there is rooted fear of inflation and it is believed that everyone should bear the consequences of their own actions.

The economic news from Greece will not convince the Germans. Today's communication of the Office for Combating Economic Crimes alarms that tax evasion in the Aegean Islands has reached 70 per cent. The champion is the island of Rhodes, where the service inspected 11 companies and found irregularities in the tax documents in all 11 firms. The Office inspected 140 enterprises on Mykonos and found tax violations in 103 of them. In Paros, it inspected 116 companies and found violations "only" in 75 of them. All three islands are top tourist destinations of world fame.

These violations are detected at a time when the Greek government at the insistence of the supervisory Troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF updated the revenue statement reducing its targets, i.e. to less tax revenue, but the Greek authorities again are not able to meet even this reduced target. The updated revenue statement requires € 5.4 billion monthly to be collected in the treasury by the end of the year in order the deficit not to exceed 1€ 6.4 billion throughout 2011. For the first seven months from January to July, it is € 15.5 billion.

At the same time, unemployment grows and according to the National Statistical Service of Greece, it reached 16.6 per cent in May. In comparison, it was 12.0 per cent in the same month in 2010 and in April 2011, it was 15.8 per cent. This means that 51,804 people have lost their jobs just in one month. The most severely affected areas are western Macedonia, where unemployment is 24.9%, Eastern Macedonia and Thrace - 20% and Central Macedonia - 19.8%.

Things are not different for those who still have a job. The turnover of retailers in the first 20 days of summer discounts dropped 25 per cent compared to the same period last year, reported the National Chamber of Commerce. This is the biggest drop in turnover during the last three years. From 10 stores 8 have reduced turnover, and the remaining 2 are keeping last year's relatively low turnover. Some stores recorded a decline in turnover by 60 per cent.

Today, the downward trend on the Athens Stock Exchange continues as its index stopped at 962.39 points – a decline of 2.01 per cent for the day. The Greek spread settled over 1300 and is 1344.7 basis points today.

 

Tags: Euro zoneDrachmaForeign debtUnemploymentBudget deficitTax evasionAthens Stock Exchange
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