Galery

1

Unfortunately, I do not see a scenario in which Greece may violate some of the requirements, except those with which the European Union is ready to agree, and continue to receive money at the same time. This political discourse, which is now winning votes, cannot justify its promises on the one hand, and is now creating many problems on the other because due to fear, people are withdrawing their deposits, exporting them abroad and banks in Greece are requiring additional funding, turning for help to the central bank. Not only are there problems at present because of the extremely populist rhetoric but there will be problems also in the future because the new government cannot justify those promises.

Is there a way to cancel part of the debt of Greece, as stated by the representatives of SYRIZA?

There is a way, if I am not mistaken part of the debt of Greece has already been cancelled twice, but the European partners are no longer willing to do this. The official position that is circulating is that the possible concessions regarding the debts of Greece can only be through the repayment of loans. I.e. to extend the term of payment to about 50 years, to extend the maturity of these debts, but not to restructure them. The European Central Bank has directly stated that its investments in Greek securities are not subject to restructuring, therefore, such a thing cannot happen and it is quite unrealistic to rely on this option. In general, the current position is that it cannot happen, which is why the political discourse in Greece appears to be primarily political and populist, it is not based on plans or options with which the partners can agree.

What is the reason for the contraction of deposits in Greek banks in your opinion?

It is solely due to the political discourse. I do not think this year Greece is worse than it was in the previous year. To the contrary, I even think things there are slowly, albeit with great difficulty, starting to be resolved, regardless of how far-fetched this term is at this stage. But the fact is that an extreme left government is expected, which is Euro-sceptic and constantly explaining how some bad Western colonisers are coming to the country, despoiling it, and so on. It should be stressed that Greece is one of the few countries in the euro area that has really implemented a policy of austerity. Yes, its debt has increased, but there are significant budget savings and the country already has a primary budget surplus, which was one of the requirements of the rescue plan. Naturally, they have not achieved the goal but it is a step in the right direction. Unlike other countries that have taken no such measures and where "austerity" is something mysterious to me because when I look at the data I see no cost cuts.

I think that the political discourse in Greece is enough to scare investors and depositors in these banks. Seeing what is happening, ordinary households, for example, are worried about their funds and they are withdrawing them from the banks and sending them abroad. This is the major problem, because if they remain in the economy in another form, the money is there, but when the funds are out of the economy, this means that they are no longer circulating in it. Even banks cannot grant them in the form of loans or invest them in government securities. The money is just flowing out of the economy, which is further hindering the economic development and the reason for this are the serious fears that when Greece refuses to comply with the requirements of the rescue plan, then it will be forced to exit the euro area and introduce the drachma, which will lead to various problems.

Firstly, there is simply no formal procedure for this to happen, whether they expel it or if it leaves alone. Such a procedure does not exist and the important question is how this will happen, what the mechanism is, what the consequences will be. The other issue is that upon introducing a new currency, its exchange rate will totally depreciate against the euro, which will mean huge losses for businesses and the people who save. And especially for borrowers because their loans are in a particular currency and the introduction of a new one that is seriously depreciated as well as the real value of their income will respectively increase the value of loans compared to their purchasing power.

Are there financial resources that are currently coming from our southern neighbour into Bulgarian banks?

It is not excluded that there may be such resources but unfortunately, there are no such statistics. I.e. bank deposits are not separated by where the money in them comes from, it is only clear if it comes from households or financial institutions. It is possible that there is a transfer of deposits to Bulgaria because the capital of several Bulgarian banks is owned by Greek banks, so it is no wonder that some of these funds are directed to Bulgaria, as a country that is relatively close in geographical terms and in view of the fact that a fair number of Greek companies have activities here. When Greece was experiencing the most serious problems we saw companies transferring their registration from Greece to Bulgaria. Therefore, such a transfer is not excluded but since no such statistics are available, we cannot speak with certainty.

Is there currently a danger for the Bulgarian banking system, as four Greek banks have requested financial assistance from the Greek state fund?