Photo: kathimerini.gr
However, I do not believe that this will dramatically change the course of Europe. European governments simply will not agree to forgive the debt of Greece to the detriment of their taxpayers. They will rather use the political precedent, namely the victory of SYRIZA, to put pressure on the more conservative governments, such as that of Germany, to tell them, "You see what your austerity policy has led to." And this is reasonable. The truth is that, years ago, this extreme policy of austerity should have been combined with measures to promote economic growth, with structural reforms that Greece lacks, in order to give people a chance and perspective. Young people are mainly rebelling against the lack of perspective, not against poverty itself, which is depressing and unbearable in some countries of course. But it is even more frightening that they do not see how they will emerge from this situation, they cannot plan their lives, which makes them easy to manipulate. All this unites them behind sellers of illusions, such as Tsipras.
Therefore, European societies are objectively divided and the plan for a European fund for strategic investment is a tool to restore economic growth and to reduce disparities between the socioeconomic conditions of the countries. Not for nothing did European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker say that "we are last-chance Europe". Those who want to destroy this Europe, which they blame for everything, offer no alternative. What would they put in its place? Would it be Europe of borders, Europe of nationalisms, Europe, which is Putin’s partner? They offer a reasonable and somewhat understandable but ungrounded denial. They offer no real alternative and societies will soon realise this.
If we talk about Europe of states and governments, things are quite different. I think the euro zone has learnt a lot of lessons from the crisis and it has already established mechanisms that allow no country to blackmail others and to drive a wedge between them. Greece could blackmail the euro zone while George Papandreou was in power, when there was no European Stability Facility and European Banking Union. Because then Greece's exit from the euro zone would mean spreading the so-called "contagion." That is, the financial crisis would affect other countries through the transmission of the banks, through the return on their debts. This cannot happen, as I have said, because there are mechanisms that can stop it.
This means that if Greece decides to leave the euro zone, although Tsipras has said he does not want this to happen, the only injured party will be it itself and the catastrophe will be both economic and political. It will be just a loss for Europe that it may handle in economic terms.
In political terms, such an event will undoubtedly provoke shocks, but I do not believe it will destroy Europe. Moreover, I do not believe the leaders of SYRIZA are so irresponsible. If they go that far, I think that the Greeks themselves will overthrow them as they toppled Papandreou.
However, these are hypothetical scenarios. Since the negotiations themselves have not yet started, it is hard to say how they will develop. In my opinion, the most likely scenario is for finding a compromise, i.e. for the Western partners to give something to Tsipras, so that he will not return empty-handed to his voters in order for them not to destabilise his country. The new government in Athens will have to make concessions too and they will have a political cost. It will have to recognise that some of the promises with which it has won the elections cannot be kept.
Does this mean that there is no real danger of Grexit in your opinion?
I am inclined to agree with those analysts who believe that the so-called Grexit makes neither political nor economic sense.
Let us look at the economic plan. What Grexit could resolve, i.e. the internal devaluation, was achieved through drastic cuts in wages and pensions in Greece. Therefore, now it makes no sense to return to the drachma. The only thing that such a move could achieve is to make the Greeks even poorer than they already are.
As for the political consequences, is Greece interested in destabilising Europe and leaving it? What will Greece do outside Europe with borders and customs duties at them in view of the fact that it imports 85 percent of its consumption? They would not be able to pay even for petrol.
Furthermore, in purely procedural terms, the European Economic and Monetary Union is an irreversible process. If you want to leave it, you will have to leave the European Union, not the euro zone. There is a procedure for leaving the European Union, which is stipulated in the contract. I do not think that a state of the scale of Greece will make such a suicidal step, even though it is led by a person like Tsipras.
What we can actually expect is difficult negotiations that will seek a typical European solution, a compromise. But Greeks must realise that the forces are unequal. Now they are alone against all the other 18 states in the euro zone. They perceive the recent Greek elections as a rebellion against arithmetic, against common sense. Such uprisings are doomed as a rule. They can be explained, but not justified.
In the statements by Tsipras and Varoufakis we heard a clear attempt to circumvent the EU rules. How does Europe perceive this behaviour?
According to me, this is a declaration of positions in advance, which is normal. Before such difficult negotiations everybody shows off and says what he will do. However, the conversation behind the closed doors of the hall of negotiations is different and a real assessment of the capacities and forces is made.