Instability is the first word that sprang up from the comments of economic analysts after the announcement of the results of the Greek elections. Before noon, the main index of the Athens Stock Exchange dropped by 8% compared to Friday's session of the Greek market. Citigroup announced that the chances of Greece leaving the eurozone are increasing. Financiers report that the possibility of the country leaving the single currency union in the next 12-18 months has risen to 75% from 50% before the elections.
Goldman Sachs analysts are worried due to the obscure political situation in the country. It does not make it clear how the next government will approach the resolution of urgent issues. One of them is cutting the budget by 11.5 billion euro by the end of June. Another issue is the case with bonds acting under foreign law, the maturity of which will be on 15 May this year. Their owners refused to join the PSI process and expect to be paid the full amount of the securities. This cannot happen, because Greece cut by 53.3% the nominal value of bonds of about 97% of private investors in the Greek debt. So, the new government of the country will face the dilemma of whether to refuse to pay the nominal value, which will officially be interpreted as a suspension of payments (default) or to pay the full amount of the bonds and annoy the other 97% of bondholders, who were forced to agree with the "voluntary" debt haircut.
When the first results were announced, financial guru Nouriel Roubini also known as Dr. Doom noted in his Twitter profile: "Greece in political chaos while the recession becomes a depression. It looks like a train wreck leading eventually to default and exit (from the euro)." Roubini had developed this theory at the beginning of the year, when he attended a debate in Athens to defend his thesis that Greece will collapse if it does not leave the eurozone alone. He also pointed out, "Result of Greek elections much more serious than the French one as the former leads to chaos while Hollande will turn out to be a moderate." According to him, Greece will be out of the euro area next year.
He stressed that the total vote in favour of the parties, which had supported the programme of the Troika of the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, is only about 33%. In contrast, extreme left and extreme right political movements received 66% of the vote. He concludes: "Greek membership in EZ is now at risk with serious contagion risks for the rest of the periphery. EZ policy uncertainty now sharply higher." Even media magnate Rupert Murdoch could not hide his amazement at the Greek results, focusing on the failure of the two ruling parties to collect, together at least half of the vote of the Greeks. In his Twitter profile, he wrote, "Two major parties total vote down from 75 percent to 36, with up to ten other parties qualifying for parliament!"
The uncertainty in the Greek political developments is paralyzing the financial circles for another reason too. Analysts forecast that the lack of consensus between the political forces will lead to a second wave of exporting Greek deposits abroad. Bankers insist that there is no time to lose. Political forces must form a government soon in order to release the next tranche of the aid and allocate funds to recapitalize the banks.