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Anastasia Balezdrova

The division of Greek parties between supporting and rejecting the memorandum of economic aid that started in 2010 is slowly but surely becoming a major topic of controversy between them. In recent months, the two major parties - New Democracy and PASOK -  have undergone changes, the most tangible being the "blue" camp transition to the camp of the "fans" of the memorandum. After the vote on the agreement for the new loan to the country, Antonis Samaras and George Papandreou disaffiliated 42 members from the parliamentary groups, because they did not follow the party line and their vote was negative. At the same time, there is a growing wave of discontent to the memorandum and the austerity measures following it, which enhances the edges of the political spectrum.

Today, a new political formation called Independent Greeks has emerged. Its founder is the former deputy and minister in the government of New Democracy Panos Kamenos. "Good afternoon. Our movement has been born. Let Mary help us and protect us. We are many. We are independent. We are Greeks," was the message that appeared in Panos Kamenos' profiles on the social networks Facebook and Twitter. Pressing the "I like" button underneath is growing in proportion to the humorous and not so well-intentioned comments about another patriotic movement. An article was uploaded on protagon.gr, in which he was comically presented as the former leader of the terrorist group Al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden.

According to sociologists and political scientists, these processes have clarified the main differences between the parties: pro- or anti-European orientation. We have contacted the political science professor Athanasios Diamandopoulos to analyze for GRReporter the changes in the Greek political system.

"We are witnessing a reorganization of the parties in Greece, which is taking place on three levels: First, the two-party system is becoming a multi-party system and even what we sometimes call a "broken" multi-party system. Second, from a centripetal system such as the two-party system, we are moving to a centrifugal multiparty system. I.e. the fight for voters is taking place in the extremes or in the eccesses, which are growing, as happens in times of crisis. Third, the political environment is internally revised. To date, two trends existed side by side in the two traditional governmental parties: the pro-European or pro-Western, not in the sense of the position supporting the memorandum, but as a central political and cultural choice, the roots of which lie back in the years shortly before the fall of the Byzantine Empire. It starts from the proverbial phrase of the Megas Doux Lucas Notaras "I would rather see a Turkish turban than the Latin mire," through the Greek Renaissance of Adamantios Korais to the division between the supporters of Eleftherios Venizelos and the pro-monarchic minded circles and it defines a basic division of the Greek society. Until today, it existed within the two major parties. After the recent changes in their positions, which have resulted in a new New Democracy, which voted on the second memorandum and the repaired PASOK of Evangelos Venizelos and Andreas Loverdos, which has radically changed its focus, it seems that the "pro-European" trend is distributed between the two traditional governmental parties. Almost all other parties are against Europe and the memorandum and are at the two extremes of the political spectrum. I do not mean the smaller parties like the Democratic Alliance of Dora Bakogiannis and Drasi of Stefanos Manos."
 
According to the political scientist, the new distribution could have a rational or a disastrous impact "If it leads to a joint government between the two traditional parties, which will be guided by their pure pro-European movements. It would be disastrous if the Weimar Republic were repeated in Greece. This is the German state from the period between the two World Wars, where the extreme left and right forces got a higher election result and a majority in parliament and, as a result, the state was not governed by anyone, especially after the severe crisis in 1929. If the same happens here, as the forces of the extreme left and the extreme right are not united forces of government but the forces of denial, Greece will remain without a government.

But even in the first scenario, assuming that the "repentent" New Democracy and the "reborn" PASOK collect 50% of the votes and propose a government, it will be of questionable effectiveness, because the strength of the two-party system until today was the fact that it was a natural absorber of discontent. When people were disappointed by one party, they voted for the other one. If they are now obliged to govern together, the discontent will be absorbed by the anti-systematic forces of extremes. Therefore, even if the disastrous scenario is avoided, it is still possible in the medium term. Unless we assume that at some point, and in any case earlier than expected by economic analysts, economic growth starts worldwide and in Greece. But there is another difficulty: Even if the economy begins to revive, this will not be immediately transferred to Greece in the form of investments or an increase in tourism. This is because the complete conquest of the legal state and the official recognition that it is "better to break our marbles than heads" embolden the forces of extremes: the extreme left that uses violence and the extreme right, which I fear, will take action very soon. All this is scaring and deterring foreign investors and tourists."

Athanasios Diamandopoulos believes that the swarming of many new small parties is very easy in small countries under the conditions of ideological delegitimation of the existing political system. "In the USA, there was a time when both political poles had lost their effectiveness. For example, during the term of George Bush's son, the social image of the Republican Party was tragic. However, the size and nature of the federal state do not allow the concentration of financial and communication capital to "break" the current two-party system and the formation of new parties at national level. On the other hand in small countries with small financial, and especially communication, capital in the presence of a trend and when negation and populism rule, formations such as the one of Panos Kamenos are possible, though his political discourse is extremely primitive. However, I think they can win the votes of a very small part of the electoral constituency, especially among the disadvantaged layers in terms of education and intelligence. And this may lead to a remarkable, but dangerous to the political system, participation in the elections."

As for the recently intensified debate on whether there should be early elections, the opinion of the political scientist is that they cannot be postponed indefinitely. He is convinced that whenever they take place, an unprecedented high percentage of voters will not go to vote. "Nevertheless, social anger has to be vented, even if only for a very short period of time. Elections will delegalize for some time the cabinet that will be formed, possibly a joint government between New Democracy and PASOK. And this "sidewalk" means of protest, this absolute negation is likely to be limited for some time too. In this sense, although it is not a cure to be used permanently, the elections will probably give a little breath to the political system. If combined with seriousness, responsibility, approximation of positions, while the economic upturn is evolving globally, and if Greece elects a stable minister to protect citizens, to restore public order at least to a small degree and therefore, to improve the situation for investors, elections may bring times a little better than the present."

Athanasios Diamandopoulos believes that the existence of smaller parties with extreme political views depends on the two major parties. "Disaffiliations of members of New Democracy and PASOK after the vote on the second memorandum have ideologically homogenized them and given them an opportunity for a more effective political presence in comparison to what they had until now."

He believes that smaller parties do not seek the same voters. "They are turning to the same extremes of the ideological spectrum. But the populist position of Mikis Theodorakis, Alexis Mitropoulos, etc. is quite different from the dynamic right, which is represented by the widespread Golden Dawn and the extreme right of Panos Kamenos. Theodorakis and everyone around him are turning to all those set against the West, Kamenos is turning to the low educated vagabonds of the populist right and Golden Dawn – to the bullies from the extreme right determined to violently interfere."