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The return to world markets will be long and hard

13 April 2011 / 23:04:20  GRReporter
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According to the economic analyst at the National Bank of Greece Pavlos Milonas, the government should try not only to meet the objectives set out in the Memorandum of financial support but also to endeavor to further measures that would give advantage to Greece. Pavlos Milonas explained that the capital markets now see only an increasing foreign debt. They doubt it could be paid. It is, therefore, crucial to meet on a monthly bases all planned measures related to both the fiscal consolidation and the structural change without gaps in achieving the objectives. The logic is that budget surpluses should be formed and large enough to cover the debt obligations, after having met all other budget obligations." If we could not do that, why we should be lent again? And then, we would really need to talk about debt restructuring."

Similar were the comments of the economic analyst of Eurobank EFG Gikas Hardouvelis, who said that Greece will succeed with the program for economic recovery, because it has no other choice. "We are cornered and achieving the objectives set in the Memorandum of financial support is our only way out." He gave serious consideration to the long and continuing distrust of the capital markets to the will of the Greek government to deal with this crisis and has repeatedly stressed that more should be done. "The most important thing for all is Greece to return to the free lending, but at these interest rates that is not possible." Hardouvelis sent a message to the government that it has to act quickly and take additional measures so as to regain the confidence and the difference in the interest rates of the Greek to the German government bonds to decrease. "It does not matter whether we love or hate the capital markets, they should be convinced that Greece is making real efforts to change."

The CEO of EFG Eurolife Alexandros Sarrigoergiou criticised the statesmen too. He said that the time has come to bust the myths about the way of operation of state pension insurance. "The time has come to break our old beliefs which a larger part of the political circles in Greece perceive as sacred cows."

The first myth that it is time to be taken from the pedestal on which it stood for years is the mutual assistance between generations concerning retirement. The system under which the working people pay the pensions of retirees proved particularly unsuccessful and the evidences are the scarce pension funds. The problem of the aging society in both Greece and Europe is that the people who work today have to provide pensions both for their parents and for themselves, because the resources in the funds are exhausted or have never been accumulated. "The minimum pension the government set last year was 320 euros. Compare this amount with the standard of life that surrounds us and you will find that the sacred cow of this policy is not so sacred."
 
The high standard of living provided in the last decades could not be covered by the minimum state pension. Sarrigoergiou said that the average life expectancy for every European after the age of 65 is still 25 years at least. This means that after an average of 40 years of work, pensions have to be paid another 25 years in terms of an aging Europe. The old continent has a problem with the reduced labour force and the increased number of elderly people who are entitled to a pension after they have been working the whole of their lives. Among other things, Europe is becoming less competitive and produces much less and much more expensive products than countries like China or India, which flood the world market. The Executive Director of EFG Eurolife stated that the model needs to be restructured so that each working person will invest in his or her future old ages to be guaranteed a pension after many decades of work.

The second sacred cow which it is time to be put to the sword is "the state, which provides everything," said the insurance expert. Alexandros Sarrigoergiou explained that a typical insurance product as the voluntary private pension carries some risks, but also much greater capital for their security. To ensure maximum avoidance of potential risks, the Solvency II rules come into force early next year. The new regulation will allow in-depth measurement of the risks and the capital value of investments will be guaranteed based on the results, so that the contributions of the people to be protected in the highest degree. Sarrigeorgiou said that the guarantees of a service in private insurance will require five times more capital than the initially imported value. All this applies to private insurance and, in particular, to private pensions. And here it turns out that if the provider of the pension service is a private company which is bound by the Solvency II rules, it is required to guarantee that capital, but it will not be able to and will abandon the service because it becomes unprofitable. At the same time, if the state must provide the same service, it will be guaranteed by government bonds, which, as we all know, could lose their value in no time as is the case with the Greek government bonds.

Tags: EconomyMarketsInfrastructurePrivatisationCrisisForeign debtPensionsGreece
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