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Remaining in the euro area will lead to serious political instability and a threat of revolution

22 February 2012 / 15:02:57  GRReporter
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Miranda Xafa pointed out that if the Greek rescue programme is read thoroughly it will become clear that it is a project for reforming a post-socialist economy of the 1990s. It includes labour market reform, product market reform and bank restructuring. "All that is positive for medium-term competitiveness and growth, but the adjustment will be protracted and politically difficult." She stressed that the aim of the programme is to gradually balance the difference between consumption and productivity, which was the result of cheap borrowing in the past ten years. This will happen through a combination of adjustment and financing. Immediate default of Greece and exiting the euro area will not benefit the country in any way because of its 20 billion deficit, 12 billion are debt payments and the remaining 8 billion are costs of imported raw materials, fuels, foodstuffs and medicines. The Drachma would force the Greeks to live without these imported goods from the day after the default.

Imbalances in the Greek budget, which relate to the activity of the real economy cannot be addressed through monetary means, said Xafa. She compared the problems of the Greek economy with those of one of the most wretched Greek public enterprises - the railway company OSE. "Greece’s railway company has more employees than passengers," she said jokingly. She cited a statement by Stefanos Manos, who had estimated that it would cost the Greek state less to transport the passengers of the Greek railway company by taxi instead of maintaining it. At present, the losses of the railway company are approaching 10 billion euro. What the railway company needs is restructuring and privatization, not devaluation. The same applies to Greece, concluded Xafa.

Participating in the debate on Greece’s exit from the euro was Costas Lapavitsas – Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) and Denis McShane, a former Minister of State for Europe in the government of Tony Blair and ardent supporter of the Euro-idea. Lapavitsas was part of the team of the world-famous economist Nouriel Roubini and he also supported the idea that Greece should leave the euro area. Although Costas Lapavitsas is of Greek origin and has a direct connection with the Mediterranean country, he defended the thesis that "sudden death with the drachma" is a better option for emerging from the crisis than the recovery programme for Europe is. He presented the scenario of exiting the common currency in detail and only slightly negligently, said that there will be some minor difficulties along the way.

One of the problems Lapavatsis presented and there is no way Greece to avoid it, if it falls into complete financial disgrace, is the recapitalization of banks. After the collapse of the country, they will be permanently isolated from all previously identified sources of funds and the European Central Bank will no longer have to render services to them. Lapavitsas said that in order to be saved, they must all be nationalized until the country becomes stable. With the same vigour, he suggested that the negative trade balance could be ignored and the country could make do with what it produces, without taking into account the fact that Greece spends about four billion every year to import foodstuffs. It became clear from what Lapavitsas had described that the ideal option for Greece, according to him, was the establishment of a Soviet Union type planned economy known during the Cold War period and the financial climate of Bulgaria after the "birth" of freedom and democracy, when coupons were the primary means to procure bread and milk.

On the other side of the debate, the British politician Denis MacShane presented the social and political rather than the economic side if Greece eventually exits the euro area. He compared theoretical economists with men who know 325 different ways to make love but have never touched a woman. McShane said in his speech that it would be a historic mistake for Europe, if it prompted Greece to exit the euro. It is not possible that we, the cold barbarians from northern Europe, deny the right of Greece to be part of the fate of Europe. If the Greek people want to leave the euro area, it is their right, but the powerful states in Europe have no right to put pressure on them. If the Greeks want to return to the drachma, it must be the result of their free will and not under compulsion, he stated.

After the end of the debate, a vote was held and 75% of the people present declared themselves "against" Greece's exit from the euro area and the return of the drachma. The next day, Nouriel Roubini published in his tweeter profile his impressions from the debate, true to what was said on Tuesday evening, "Based on meetings in Athens, most Greeks desperately want to keep the Euro. But the economy is spinning from recession into depression."

Tags: EconomyMarketsNouriel RoubiniGreeceMiranda XafaDefaultDrachmaRecovery programme
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