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Professor George Bitros: Rescheduling of the Greek Debt is a Matter of Time

23 July 2010 / 14:07:48  GRReporter
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- Foreign, and particularly the neighboring countries, are concerned that there might be consequences for the Greek investment in Greece's neighboring countries. Do you think such a thing could happen?
 

- For several years, due to the measures taken, the Greek economy will undergo a period of recession in which personal income will decline, but competitiveness will increase. And because of this uncertain environment, investors, both in Greece and beyond, will be reserved. But if countries like Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania recover faster, Greek investors from those countries would again consider investing in my opinion. Because there is a gap in time, ie when the Greek economy goes into recession, the Bulgarian, or Romanian, or Serbian economy can begin to recover faster. I am not aware of the nature of the problems facing these countries now. But I just feel that the trend is different. That is, while the trend in Greece is a downward, it might be flat or even slightly upward there. So, if the first signs of economic growth in these countries appear, Greek investors, who have invested there, will see the need to strengthen their positions, because the economy will begin to recover. But there will be a downward movement here. Therefore, I think the answer depends very much on the behavior of these economies in the next 2-3 years. If they start to go up more quickly than Greece, they will attract investments.
  
- How long do you think the recession will continue in Greece?

- Recession in Greece, according to the traditional methods of measurement, will continue perhaps two years. But the return to the 2009 or 2008 prosperity probably will take 5 or 10 years. The Greek economy in no way will resemble the economy of 2000 after this test.

- In what sense?

- The economy will be more competitive, economic growth will be easier to maintain, public finances will be well arranged and the government debt is on track to decline. Greek industry, Greek services, Greek tourism will be more competitive. It will be a more vibrant and stronger economy. Not that there will be no problems, there will be problems. The problem with the social security system will not be solved. Once we have left the social security system to go down 50 years, we will need as many 30-40-50 years to solve it. Because this is a problem of whole generations, the problem of social security is a specific one. But the Greek economy, when it comes out from the recession and starts to slowly recover, will be very competitive. I'm optimistic about it. Because the Greeks bear the spirit of entrepreneurship. If only they weren’t under the feet of the government so much ... This does not mean that the Greek businessmen should not work under legislative frameworks,  frameworks that respect the environment and labor market laws. But the Greeks are mostly small businessmen. They employ 5-10 people and they are very dynamic. And the economy of Greece will go very well when they regain their courage and vigor.

Tags: Economic crisisDebt reschedulingGeorge BitrosMarkets
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