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Undesirable but probable scenario that Merrill Lynch explores is a debt restructuring uncoordinated with the creditors, which would change the conditions and laws for the financing of Greece. The present bonds would be replaced with new ones with lower value and longer maturity. They could be issued by the European Financial Stability Facility. The whole procedure would improve the profile of the Greek foreign debt, but it would have disastrous consequences for the financial structure of the euro area. The countries from the periphery would suffer most and Spain would also be forced to ask for help from the rescue fund. Greece would not be able to access the capital markets for many years, the haircutting of the bond value could exceed 50% and the CDS market would be operating at full speed.
 
A possible consequence of forced debt restructuring would be Greece’s leaving the euro area and currency devaluation. Greece's competitiveness would increase, but the burden of foreign debt would increase many times after the return to the drachma. Besides the hard consequences for the euro area, there would follow a massive withdrawal of capitals from the country. Bonds haircutting could exceed 75%, a complete activation of the CDS market and the event would be reported as Greece’s insolvency.