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McKinsey & Company proved that it is possible to open 500 thousand new jobs in Greece in the next 10 years

05 September 2011 / 20:09:50  GRReporter
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Thanks to the availability of raw materials and products with high quality in the food industry, there should be specialized processing and reasonable prices in Greece. This provides many opportunities for increasing the production and exports while reducing the imports, mainly in four food categories - oils, fruits and vegetables, cereals and dairy products. The Athens Office of McKinsey & Company stresses that not only the feta, but also a wide variety of other dairy products like cheese, yogurt and more should be distinctive for Greece.

As for olive oil, Greece loses high added value, given that the Italian manufacturers buy wholesale the Greek product, process it, bottle it and sell it with a net profit of 50% over what they have paid the Greek producers. The company proposes that a private-public company should be established, a Greek management company for food, bringing together small and medium-sized producers, to create brand names. In addition, this organization should be responsible to support the establishment of processing plants and plants for packaging of food in order to increase the consumption of Greek goods domestically and not to increase the import and export.

The rising stars of the Greek economy, which have great potential for development, but are not very popular yet and do not contribute to the GDP significantly are pharmaceutics, aquaculture development, medical tourism, care for the elderly and chronically ill, establishment of logistics centres and waste management. In addition, two small sub-categories are expected to play a symbolic role in the new growth model of Greece. These include specialized production of rare food categories and development of targeted educational programs in the humanities. This common set of alternative economic sectors in the future, beside the usual ones for Greece, would bring net added value to the GDP of € 7 billion in 10 years and could open up to 70,000 jobs, which seem crucial in today's deepening recession and unemployment.

Changing the old ways of thinking and working

The study shows that two out of three Greeks choose to work, which means that one third of the country's work force remains unused. In the most part, women and young people to thirty years of age remain outside the labour market. Analysts estimate that this is due to the mindset established over the years that has to change drastically today. Specific government policies are necessary to support young people’s earlier entry into the labour market as well as more effective integration of women into the working conditions in different environments.

The unusually high percentage of largely voluntary unemployment is due to the old model of economic development based primarily on public and private consumption - a hyper-consumption, which relied on government spending for years, instead on profitable foreign direct investment, which is one of the main reasons for the loss of competitiveness of Greek products. The experts say that we should not continue to sustain the economy of public and private loans; we have to create an entrepreneurial friendly environment.

Private and public consumption should fall by 15% -20% at least and reach 75% of GDP from today’s 94% of GDP. Productivity per capita should also increase with the growth of employment of workers in active age and with the improving of the quality of the work. Direct private investment should also grow to the average values in southern Europe and reach at least 23% of GDP from the present 14% of GDP. The private sector should change radically its orientation, with particular emphasis on exports. The net exports should rise significantly above the current levels. Today, it has a negative value of 8.5% of GDP and in 2021, it should be positive or should zero the balance of trade (export-import) at least. Undoubtedly, the most serious problem in Greece remains informal economy and the hole it forms in the government revenue. Tax evasion should reduce by half at least to broaden the tax revenue base not to deepen it with higher values and low collection rates.

Currently, the largest industrial enterprises in Greece employing over 250 people are only 27% of the companies in the sector, unlike countries such as the Netherlands and Germany, where the number of large companies is 34% and 54%. The major problem is not so much the size but the competitiveness of manufactured products, which in Greece is still low. The lack of commercial attractiveness more in view of value per unit of production rather than of quality is the reason for the negative trade balance of the country and € 19 billion less for 2010 at that. This makes Greece to continue to import many goods and products, rather than to develop its own production.

Tags: EconomyMarketsMcKinsey & CompanyStudyGreeceProspectsEconomic growth
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