Since I do not expect anything positive to happen to the Greek economy, the Greek income and the social status of the Greeks (things like poverty and inequality) in a possible Grexit, especially in the short term, the news from Greece after it eventually leaves the euro zone would stabilise the euro area. The reason for this would be that the news from Greece would create political impetus for the euro zone countries to undertake significant reforms and to do so faster and more decisively.
     In the case of transition to national currency, like the drachma for example, could the introduction of a currency board similar to that in Bulgaria play a stabilising role in Greece's finances and to what extent?
     For me as a Bulgarian economist the assumption of Greece leaving the euro zone to introduce a currency board is contradictory in terms of logic. From the perspective of Bulgaria, where there is a currency board, even with all the turmoil in the euro zone, it is perfectly clear that it is better for the country to be in the euro zone than to introduce a currency board. It is preferable to be a member of the euro zone rather than to introduce a currency board pegged to the euro. It is not clear to me how it is possible for the situation of an economy, which is already a member of the euro zone to improve if it leaves it to be pegged to the euro again through the currency board.
    Here I must emphasize that pegging the Greek currency through a currency board to any other world currency other from the euro would be a direct invitation to a catastrophe of Argentine type - such a currency board cannot endure by definition because the Greek economy is dominantly tied to trade and capital flows invoiced in euro.
     Even if the new Greek currency were pegged to a new, lower exchange rate, the currency board would prohibit further devaluation of the Greek currency, which would inevitably block again Greece’s ability to reduce, through currency devaluation, the pain of its loss of competitiveness due to its failure to implement the reforms. Therefore, it should carry out equally painful reforms, and perhaps more painful because of the postponement, but already after the loss of living standards due to the weakened currency.
     Not to mention that the question as to where the international reserves to ensure the currency board in Greece would be taken from has no answer at present. The IMF came to Bulgaria in the past but Bulgaria is not just a rare exception, but the only one – it is the only case in the history of a board approved and supported by the IMF. Do not forget that the IMF is part of the Troika and Greece’s exiting the euro zone would be an essential, rhetorical and moral rejection of the Troika on the part of Greek society. Therefore, the IMF would not be happy and it would hardly support the new regime. The expectations are simply wrong.
     If Greece remained in the euro zone, many analysts fear that it would be at the tail end for a long time because of its unwillingness to carry out reforms. What is your opinion?
     It is the opposite, simply because I do not accept the thesis that there are no reforms in Greece, referring to the macroeconomic data of Greece and to my personal observations of Thassos, where I have spent my summer holidays with my family for 8 years now. Yes, there is resistance against reforms, they are implemented much slower than in other places, for example, in the Baltic states and Ireland, which acted quickly and decisively, paid a high price in the short term but have already forgotten about the whole thing and they are now growing at an impressive pace. But reforms have been implemented, the over-bloated state sector has shrunk, both in terms of money and people, real wages that had reached highly unsustainable levels before the crisis have decreased, competition niches in the Greek economy that have been closed until recently have opened due to incentives for increased productivity.
     It is true that a lot remains to be done but what has been done is significant. Years ago, it was impossible to obtain a receipt while on Thassos. Now not only do they issue receipts regularly but I can also pay my holiday through the bank, which means paid taxes, not through a Western Union transfer of which the Greek Minister of Finance is unable to be aware.
     The Greek budget before debt service has had positive values for some time and it continues to improve. Unemployment has been falling for a whole year, albeit slightly. Employment is rising, particularly during the last two quarters for which there is data available. The economy has been growing over the past 12 months for which there is data available, almost twice as fast compared with that of Bulgaria. Real household consumption also increased throughout 2014.
     Reforms have been implemented and they are giving results. My expectation is that if Greece remained in the euro zone and continued with the reforms (even renegotiated in terms of scope and time), it would grow faster than the euro zone itself for a long time. To the contrary, I expect Greece to be at the tail end for a long time if it left the euro zone, thus abandoning the reforms and starting, in the short term, to reduce the pain of that refusal through continuous currency devaluation.