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French "Plan B" for coordinated disintegration of the euro area

10 November 2011 / 15:11:40  GRReporter
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"The new dual-currency system will not solve all our problems like a magic wand," the experts say. Moreover, "to be able to function and be effective, it requires the implementation of major investment across the euro area - a prerequisite necessary for economic convergence of Member States."

4. Exiting the euro area

The 30 CAE researchers point out that the Maastricht Treaty does not provide for any country to exit the euro area. But even in the event that a country like Greece decided to exit the area, those that would suffer the greatest damage would be the economically and financially stable countries. With the proposed solution, the countries that would adopt the euro of the north would be able to revaluate it to further reduce the cost of their imports.

These countries except Germany, could be Austria, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Finland and Estonia, Vesperini points out. The rest may adopt the euro of the south. Of course, the split of the French-German couple will cause confusion and complex issues internationally. CAE experts believe that the price would be less than the spread of the crisis in all more vulnerable economies and the voluntary exit of the area, which will probably follow in this case.

In conclusion, Vesperini notes that "the nostalgia of the German society for the German mark and its refusal to support troubled countries" favours the decision of CAE. Germany’s exit from the euro area of the south will allow revaluation of its currency and accumulation of trade surpluses with its partners in the euro area. At the same time, this implies that "Berlin has to agree to the implementation of a single monetary policy by the European Central Bank that is diametrically opposed to the principles of Bundesbank." 

 

Tags: Council of Economic AnalysisCAEPlan BDisintegration of the euro area
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