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The failure of Greece will bring no good for Bulgaria

17 February 2012 / 18:02:39  GRReporter
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It is important to understand that we are not interested in the Greek economy going down. Firstly, because Greece is one of the largest foreign economic partners of the country. Secondly, because there is a very strong presence of Greek banks in Bulgaria. Of course, with one exception, they are registered as Bulgarian financial institutions, but they are the branches of Greek ones. However, they meet the very stringent requirements of the Bulgarian National Bank. Any problems in the economy and in the banking sector of Greece would affect Bulgaria. We should not forget that there are many Greek companies and investors in our country, which is extremely important for us. The majority of them are subsidiaries of major Greek corporations.

The conclusion is that Greece’s economic instability will not have a positive impact on Bulgaria. Quite the contrary. The question is how deeply it can affect us.

In this context, what are the threats to the Bulgarian financial system in the event that Greece defaults and leaves the eurozone? (35% of the Bulgarian banking sector is held by Greek banks).

Only Alpha Bank Bulgaria is a branch of a Greek bank. All other banks are subsidiaries, but registered under the Bulgarian legislation, which means that their capital adequacy and bank supervision are subject to the rules imposed by the Bulgarian National Bank. In any case, by looking at the banking sector in Bulgaria, we will see that there is significant funding in the form of private debt. This means that over the years, they have received loans from parent banks, which were transferred to Bulgaria to be invested in various projects. In recent years, the debt has been repaid and in case of problems in the parent bank, its property in Bulgaria would be jeopardized. This does not necessarily apply to all Bulgarian banks, but I think the process should be considered with caution.

Let us go back to our initial subject on the alternatives for Greece and the proposals the second troika is ready to give in order to restore economic stability in the country. What do you think is the right package of measures?

I will not go into details before the official report is released, but we will visit Athens between 5 and 6 March. We will hold a series of meetings with representatives of various institutions, political parties and social partners. We will seek their views and those of economists who have something to say on the problems of Greece. Our report will be ready about a month after this visit. I am not saying that we should expect any miracles, but it is obvious that the current restructuring programme in Greece needs to be adjusted.

Tags: EconomyMarketsKalfinAlternative troikaRecovery programmeGreece
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