The Best of GRReporter
flag_bg flag_gr flag_gb

Economist Intelligence Unit: 35 percent haircut on the Greek debt in 2012

09 December 2010 / 15:12:41  GRReporter
5284 reads

He stressed that the Euro zone is experiencing several key problems now and it should find a solution: 1) consolidation of public finances and imbalances within the Euro zone. Debt in the Euro zone is about 80 percent of the total GDP. It has increased by 10 per cent for one or two years. This means that there is a more general problem with the public finances in the Euro zone. Therefore, the criteria for deficit and debt have become more stringent. This is a step in the right direction. It's not about penalties but about closer monitoring and supervision. 2) What is the support mechanism of the Euro zone for a country on the verge of crisis? How and under what criteria will this permanent mechanism work for fiscal stabilization? All agree that it should exist, but there are big differences as to whether the private sector should be included in it. 3) Reform of the banking system in Europe and then worldwide. In the case of Ireland, problems began in the banking sector. This means that the future of the Euro zone depends not only on public finances. One suggestion is a tax on banking transactions with which to form a kind of a mutual fund that can be used in case of crisis. 4) The economic growth on the European Union level, which is quite low.

The Financial Minister of Greece described the problems facing the country, noting that Greece has no other alternative than the euro. Local currency would mean a lower standard of living, less investment, less stable finances. Unemployment can not be reduced without economic growth. There is no economic growth without investment, and investment will not come before the markets open. Markets will be opened when the confidence in the financial system in Greece is restored and this is the first problem to be solved. But is this enough? It is not. There must be competitiveness.

Vassilis Rapanos, president of the National Bank of Greece and the Greek Association of Bankers admitted that he was dealing with the Greek economy for 30 years and came to the conclusion that if there are no stable and effective institutions, the chances to emerge from the crisis are limited. A lot has been done but much remains to be done. He stressed that Greece should have an independent tax administration system to eliminate tax evasion. It should be simple, procedures should be simple, and taxes should be permanent, not increased every day. Only then, according to the banker, the tax system will be trusted. He concluded that the assistance of the IMF will be very valuable in the reform of institutions. Vassilis Rapanos also said that the Greek society is currently of independent means and this should change.  

Many experts from different countries spoke at the forum as they see the Greek crisis differently. According to Lawrence Howell, CEO of EFG International, the economic crisis is not of great concern, it should be overcome. What is more troublesome is that the lessons Greece learned in recent months will easily be forgotten. Generally, he believes the euro will give way to the dollar, which will become the next global currency. However, the opposite is the opinion of Elga Bartsch, Chief European Economist at Morgan Stanley. According to her, the USA budget deficit next year will be two times higher than the average for the Euro zone. In her opinion the debt crisis in the Euro zone is a catalyst for a deeper economic union. She also said that markets do not reject anyone for a long time unless they are treated as bad as Argentina treated them.

Tags: Economist Intelligence UnitHaircutGreek debtEconomic crisisMarketsEuro zone
SUPPORT US!
GRReporter’s content is brought to you for free 7 days a week by a team of highly professional journalists, translators, photographers, operators, software developers, designers. If you like and follow our work, consider whether you could support us financially with an amount at your choice.
Subscription
You can support us only once as well.
blog comments powered by Disqus