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Coming to agreement with the creditors is impossible without total self-renunciation of the political class

08 May 2015 / 16:05:27  GRReporter
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The opinion that the Greek macroeconomics is in a tragic state but the people are living well is common, unlike Bulgaria, where the macroeconomic indicators are stable but the people are poor. Do you share this opinion and how would you explain it?

I agree and I am convinced that the answer should be sought in the following. Whether the two most developed economic sectors of Greece namely transport shipping that holds 15% (!!!) of the world fleet and tourism are totally exempt from taxation or if their taxation is low and uncontrolled, and if Greeks receive a direct or indirect income from these private sectors. They have left the state to take care of everything else.

Under a strong European (mostly French) influence, Greece has created a huge administrative class, mainly in the local government and public services. Just look at the number of Greek municipalities and compare it with that in Germany and even Bulgaria and you will see. This administrative class has degenerated due to the political partisanship that allows it continuously and absolutely unnecessarily to grow and benefit from privileges that are contrary to common sense.

Will the euro zone survive in its current form and will Bulgaria have a chance to become part of it?

The euro zone will survive. A serious interview should not comment on what Mr. Varoufakis keeps blaring forth. If our two most likely scenarios on the Greek crisis occur, Bulgaria should not think about introducing the euro soon.
 
Economic forecasts are complicated in the rapidly changing global and regional environment. However, being an expert with extensive experience, would you dare to make a short-term forecast for the development of the Balkans over the next year?

Unfortunately, my forecast about the Balkans over the next year is not optimistic. The factors that determine my rational pessimism are very strong. The negotiations on the bailout to the country are wide of the mark. The war of nerves between the Greek negotiators and the creditors is taking the place of the negotiation process. This is the main reason for the chances of our base scenario on emerging from the crisis to lessen dramatically. The likelihood of our backup scenario, namely Grexit, has sharply increased for the same reason. 

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