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Victoria Mindova

The second Memorandum would open the exit of the area for ​​Greece after 2015, said the economist George Argitis. He is part of the scientific and economic team of the trade union of employees in the private sector and presented his vision for the development of the Greek economy under the shadow of the new support loan that the Greeks expect to receive for the 2012-2013 period.

According to him, another aid from Europe and the International Monetary Fund, which is expected to reach about 60 billion euros for the next two years, would bring even more severe economic measures. It would deepen the recession to such an extent that Greece would not be able to stand up at all in the period 2014-2015 and it would have to find at least another 130 billion euros to cover its needs for state funding and to pay old debts. Thus, instead of recovering the country so that it starts producing primary budget deficits it would be forced to leave the currency union, because the countries in it could no longer bear the burden of troubled Greece.
 
The dark forecasts of the economists were shared by Yannis Varoufakis who presented to journalists his plan for restructuring of the European financial policy. In his opinion, no one could "throw" Greece out of the euro area if it does not want to leave it, but he forecasts that the crisis would deepen if the present economic policy is not changed. Varoufakis offers three radical reforms in the role of the European Central Bank, the European Investment Bank and the European Financial Stability Facility so as to solve the problem of European countries with high external debt once and for all. As Yiannis Varoufakis explained to GRReporter about two months ago, the European Financial Stability Facility should change the direction of its actions. Instead of rescuing countries it should focus more on the financing of troubled banks in the euro area.

Then, the European Central Bank could help finance the countries with problems or more precisely with high foreign debt. The support would be in the form of refinancing of 60% of the accumulated foreign debt through the issuance of euro-bonds on its behalf. Each member state of the euro area would be able to make a credit account in the European Central Bank. The parent bank (ECB) could borrow funds from capital markets at a much lower value than any of the member states. Then, the countries themselves would settle with the ECB rather than with the capital markets. "This scenario would reduce the foreign debt of Greece below 100% of the GDP in a few years, but it would not solve the problem," said Varoufakis. He believes that due to the negative economic growth accumulated in 2026 the country would end up again with a large foreign debt of 220 billion euros.

The economist believes that the leaders in Brussels should involve the European Investment Bank in order to mark real progress. Currently, it holds twice as much capital than the World Bank, which can not be used because the projects it funds should have about 50% contribution by the member states. "But Greece has not got a single euro aside to take advantage of its opportunities." Here is the role of the Euro-bond funds which would be used to finance projects of the European Investment Bank. The economist expects that the implementation of the three reforms in the functions of the three institutions would lead to a general improvement in the position of the euro in the global economy; the Greek foreign debt could fall below 50% of the GDP in 2026. However, it is not clear how feasible it is and the will to change the role of institutions remains a political issue that should be decided in Brussels.