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Huge amounts and glory were gambled and lost on the Grexit roulette

23 December 2012 / 19:12:09  GRReporter
5659 reads

Not only the Mayans were wrong in their prophecy about the end of the world. The same happened to market prophets, who totally failed in their prognoses about the second-worst scenario for 2012 - Greece's exit from the Eurozone. Neither the end of the world, nor the notorious Grexit happened, despite warnings from some of the top names of international investment circles. Successful speculators, prominent financiers, "barons" of the financial sector, as well as banking giants in the international market, all rushed to send Greece outside the Eurozone, but, at the end of 2012, they suffered a serious blow to their reputation and the reliability of their predictions was disproved, bringing serious losses to those who bet on the so-called Grexit.

Of course, Greece and Europe put an end to such scenarios about breaking the integrity of the Eurozone and the single currency at the last possible moment. The vote of confidence in Greece from its partners was given only at the last meeting of Eurogroup, after repeated adjournments and delays (not always Athens' fault) - something that fed through the whole year the forecasts of "the Cassandras" (named after the ancient prophet of Troy). They had started to announce the disaster from the very beginning of the year, increased their efforts on the international scene in the summer, and continued until their mouth was closed at the last Eurogroup meeting. Its crucial message completely changed the, until recently, negative, attitude towards Greece - it not only "killed" all catastrophic scenarios, but also caused a change in the credit rating from Standard & Poor's by up to 6 points. This step by the American credit rating agency is not only symbolic for the end of Grexit, but also had practical implications for those who had bet against Greece's success. The fact that the country remained in the Eurozone caused losses to many influential persons in the international markets, and that did not go unnoticed. Imerisia Newspaper presented the most influential names of those who had predicted the disaster.

John Paulson

Got rich thanks to ... disasters

The first to ignite the fire in the Eurozone about the possible exit of Greece was famous speculator John Paulson. The billionaire, who won a fortune by betting on the collapse of the American mortgage market in 2007-2008, wanted to cash in on another disaster. "Greece will go bankrupt by the end of March, thus bringing about the collapse of the Eurozone," said Paulson for Bloomberg Businessweek last February. The result: March was ruthless on his finances and despite the adjustments made during the year, recently, he admitted that he had suffered significant losses as a result of erroneous predictions about the European crisis.

Jim Rogers

Hurried ...

Another "Midas" of the international markets, Jim Rogers, was quick to declare last May on CNBC that Greece would exit the Eurozone. Perhaps he was influenced by the political uncertainty around the formation of the government after the elections. The former partner of George Soros, who is considered an international expert of commodity markets, hastened to empty his portfolio of investments in euro. He continually argued that the only solution for Greece was the deletion of a larger part of its debt - something which, according to him, would mean an automatic exit of the country from the Eurozone. In 2013., After the elections in Germany, there may be no other way.

Jacob Rothschild

Envied the glory of Soros

It seems that Lord Jacob Rothschild was jealous of the fame of George Soros, who, in 1992, gained more than 1 billion dollars in one day alone, as well as the fame of being the man who got the Bank of England on its knees. Rothschild bet almost 200 million dollars against Greece through RIT Capital Partners, a company with 1.9 billion pounds investments, of which he is the Executive President. The possible exit of Greece from the Eurozone would have turned the fourth generation of the famous banking family Rothschild's fortune into a gold mine. Unfortunately for him, Grexit didn't happen.

Nouriel Roubini

Doctor Catastrophe

He himself does not speculate (at least not professionally), but advises speculators and government officials. His shares have risen since 2008, when he was internationally recognised as the man who was the first to predict the credit crisis. This year, however, they took their words back, following his unsuccessful forecast last August in Twitter that "the Troika's draconian programme will strengthen the downturn which will cause the exit of Greece from the Eurozone in 2013, and the Greek government will collapse the following year." So, fans of Dr. Catastrophe will grant him a credit of confidence until next Christmas.

Mohammed El Erian

He was also disproved...

Greece's exit from the euro was a major theme in Pacific Investment Management Co's (or Pimco) investment strategy for 2012 - the company that manages the biggest bond fund in the world. Because of the increased importance the company's theses enjoy in the American media, this strategy was often presented by a lot of the company's famous employees. Mohammed El-Erian, CEO of Pimco, however, even at the end of October, gave 60-70% probability of Greece's exit from the Eurozone. Chronologically, this was the last "Cassandra" that was refuted.

Large banks

UBS

"Greece must leave"

Tags: Forecasts Eurozone Grexit Jacob Rothschild John Paulson Jim Rogers Nouriel Roubini Mohammed El Erian Citigroup UBS JP Morgan
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